YUM! BRANDS |
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My Perspective |
Yum Brands controls 5 different concepts. KFC, PIZZA
HUT, TACO BELL, Long John Silver and A&W. YUM Brands now has 36,000 restaurants in 110 countries
and continues to open more outlets every month.
Through the five concepts of KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, LJS and A&W (the Concepts), the Company develops,
operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of
restaurants, which prepare, package and sell a menu of food
items. The Company either operates units or they are
operated by independent franchisees or licensees under the
terms of franchise or license agreements.
In addition, the
Company owns non-controlling interests in Unconsolidated
Affiliates in China who operate similar to franchisees. YUM's business consists of three segments: United States,
YUM Restaurants International (YRI) and the China Division.
The China Division includes mainland China (China), Thailand
and KFC Taiwan, and YRI includes the remainder of its
international operations.
Recently I
watched a special on TV about Asia and people are lined
up outside KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut. In China KFC is
incredibly popular. The sales figures show that while
YUM is growing slowly in North America, they are
growing rapidly in Asia. This
company is growing.
McDonalds has a market cap of 60.91 Billion. Yum Brands is
now at 15.64 Billion and growing faster than McDonalds.
Every year Yum Brands has increased its market cap. It
is now 25% as large as McDonalds. It is definitely a
large cap player and will be around for quite some time.
While I am not interested in owning this stock, I don’t expect any
kind of dramatic sell off in the stock. |
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YUM! BRANDS (YUM) - 2009
ONGOING EVALUATION
& TRADE
My goal for YUM is to collect income from naked put
writing. When the stock gets over-valued (in my opinion)
I will revert back to selling laddered naked puts to keep
myself below the stock price to try to avoid being assigned
at a too high a level. Should I get assigned I
should be able to sell the stock through covered call
writing as I will be in the low range for this stock.
Yum's chart looks promising for selling naked puts
consistently.
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YEAR - 1: 2009
TRADE COMMENCED Aug 11 2009
GOAL FOR 2009:
12%
ONGOING STRATEGY
- SELLING NAKED PUTS UNTIL ASSIGNED |
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Yum Brands controls 5 different concepts. KFC, PIZZA
HUT, TACO BELL, Long John Silver and A&W. YUM Brands now
has 36,000 restaurants in 110 countries and continues to
open more outlets every month. Recently I watched a
special on TV about Asia and people are lined up outside
KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut. In China KFC is incredibly
popular. The sales figures show that while YUM is
growing slowly in North America, they are growing
rapidly in Asia. Overall the trend is for more growth.
McDonalds has a market
cap of 60.91 Billion. Yum Brands is now at 15.64 Billion
and growing faster than McDonalds. Every year Yum Brands
has increased its market cap. It is now 25% as large as
McDonalds. It is definitely a large cap player and will
be around for quite some time. While I am not interested
in owning this stock, I don’t expect a bankruptcy soon.
This means if the stocks falls, I get assigned and/or I
have to average down, I can do so with enough confidence
that I don’t have to worry about my investment being
wiped out.
Yum's revenue per share
is 23.31 (as of 2009) which is higher than McDonalds.
Revenue is currently around 10.9 Billion and debt is
3.55 billion, however much of this debt is long term.
Quarterly earnings growth is about 35 %. In contrast
McDonalds revenue is 22.56 billion with a debt load of
11 billion spread out from short to long term duration.
McDonalds quarterly earnings growth has been ranging
between negative 3% to 6%. (2008-2009)
Both companies have
raised their dividends almost annually which should lead
to some support for YUM as its dividend is now over 2%,
which is greater than the S&P 500 average of 1.5%. It's
PE is below average.
My goal for YUM is to
collect income from naked put writing. When you look at
the chart on YUM over the past 3 years, the company has
a trading range between about 25.00 and just over 40.00.
On the chart, the yellow highlight is showing the share
price of 30.00. For writing naked puts if I stay close
to or below $30.00 I should be able to minimize the
chance of assignment to perhaps once or twice each year.
Should I get assigned I should be able to sell the stock
through covered call writing as I will be in the low
range for this stock. The chart looks promising for
selling naked puts. At times I will use the "reverse
ladder approach" so I can sell puts below 30.00 for
decent premiums. My goal would be to try to earn 12%
annually. Looking at the chart, even when this stock
pulled back in Sep 2008, Nov 2008 and Mar 2009, all
three times it recovered to above 30.00. Therefore I
feel confident that I can sell puts below the $30.00
strike, as far out as 6 months, being aware that I have
about a 25% chance of being assigned. However unless
something dramatic should befall Yum! Brands, I have a
99% chance that the stock will at some point during the
year recover to $30.00, so I can be exercised out of any
assigned shares. Let's see how I do.
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Aug 11 09 |
35.13 |
Sold 5 Naked Puts Sep 32 @ .35 |
1.0 |
0 |
32.00 |
13.25 |
0 |
0 |
161.75 |
161.75 |
Aug 24 09 |
35.65 |
Sold 10 Naked Puts Oct
30 @ .28 |
.90 |
0 |
30.38 |
19.50 |
0 |
0 |
260.50 |
422.25 |
Sep 18 09 |
34.74 |
Expiration Day 5 Sep 32 Naked Puts Expired |
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Sep 22 09 |
33.80 |
Sold 5 Naked Puts Jan 29 @ .70 |
2.4 |
0 |
29.16 |
13.25 |
0 |
0 |
336.75 |
759.00 |
Oct 16 09 |
35.25 |
Expiration: 5 Naked Puts Oct 30 expired |
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Oct 20 09 |
35.25 |
Sold 5 Naked Puts Dec 33 @ .60 |
1.8 |
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13.25 |
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286.75 |
1045.75 |
Dec 18 09 |
34.51 |
Expiry: 5 Naked Puts Dec 33 expired |
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Dec 21 09 |
35.00 |
STO 5 Naked Puts Jan 34 @ .40 |
1.1 |
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13.25 |
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186.75 |
1232.50 |
Dec 29 09 |
35.20 |
BTC 5 Naked Puts Jan 29 @ .06 |
(0.2) |
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13.25 |
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(43.25) |
1189.25 |
Dec 29 09 |
35.20 |
STO 4 Naked Puts Feb 33 @ .55 |
1.6 |
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12.00 |
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208.00 |
1397.25 |
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END OF 2009 -
INCOME $1397.25 |
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