2011:
Market Capitalization $8.9B
Revenue (FYR) $5.2B
Total Debt $3.15B
EPS $3.71
P/E Ratio 17.2x
Shares Outstanding 139.4 M
Avg. Daily Share Volume (Last 10 Days) 1.8 M
Dividend: $2.20
Book Value: $2.00
P/Cash Flow: 12.6X
Operating Margin: 15.20%
Clorox Co is a profitable Personal & Household Prods.
company that trades on the NYSE. I am sure you will
recognize the products from this company - Brita, Armor All,
STP, Glad, Burt's Bees, Hidden Valley, KC Masterpiece,
Kingsford charcoal, Green Works, and of course Clorox Bleach,
among many others.
The Company sells its products primarily
through mass merchandisers, grocery stores and other retail
outlets. It primarily sells these products in North America,
while having a smaller presence outside our continent. It is
working to grow its brands beyond our borders and has
increased its revenue and its dividend each year. This is a
large consumer products corporation with an attractive
dividend.
Over the next few years
Clorox believes it will grow its revenue between 3 to 5
percent annually. This could be higher if its brands become
more common place outside North America. Presently they have
10 number one brands out of the top 16 consumer brands.
Clorox is very strong when it comes to its brand names and
that could be the key to my success as well.
The biggest
problem Clorox faces is that many of its brands are related
to the commodities which they are derived from. This has
meant an increase in actual cost to produce by about 600
million dollars annually. The company believes this cost
will decrease by about 100 million annually starting in 2010
going forward. They have managed to increase the cost of
their products aside from Glad, by close to 50% and the
consumer has not balked at these price increases. This bodes
well for Clorox brands.
Their profit margin is around 9.85%
which is reasonable for a consumer products company. Their
debt is 3.15 billion and declining gradually. Return on
assets is again good at 13.96% but book value is poor at
$2.00 per share outstanding. The chart below shows that the
price for the stock however remains range bound, which is
okay for my strategy as I want low volatility in the stock
in order to have some degree of comfort for both my puts and
calls.
Terms
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Nothing presented is financial advice, trading advice or
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in implementing any investment strategies and losses can be
large. Trade at your own risk.
CLOROX STOCK
- 2011 TRADES
Clorox Stock Symbol - CLX
ONGOING EVALUATION
& TRADE
Year 3
Strategy: Selling Naked Puts Until Assigned
My strategy is
selling naked put options at the money and in the money on
Clorox Stock until assigned shares. Then I will sell covered
call options until exercised and repeat the cycle. Clorox
Company is a profitable Personal & Household Products
company that trades on the NYSE. I am sure you will
recognize the products from this company - Brita, Armor All,
STP, Glad, Burt's Bees, Hidden Valley, KC Masterpiece,
Kingsford charcoal, Green Works, and of course Clorox
Bleach, among many others. This will be a core holding but
through selling naked puts, I will let other people pay some
of the cost of those shares. Options are thinly traded and
premiums are reasonable but not terrific. The stock has an
excellent trading range and is widely held by institutions.
Once I have made enough income I will accept the assignment
of my naked puts. Then I will turn to covered calls and
collect the dividend until exercised out of those shares and
repeat the process. Should the stock fall too low making
covered call selling impractical I will add to my stock
position through selling naked put options again, to lower
my overall cost.
Should you find my strategy and ongoing evaluation of
this trade of value I hope you will consider a tip
for the time I spend detailing out this trade.
I have set up a Paypal account for those
who would like to donate. Thank you in advance. Remember, nothing on my site is financial advice.
They are just my ideas and opinions. Investing is risky and losses can be large. Trade
at your own risk.
Read the
terms of use
YEAR 1: 2009 - Trade Commenced March 2009 Goal for 2009:
10% (10 months)
Strategy: Sell Put Options Until Assigned
Capital In Use At End Of 2009
32,500.00
Income Earned in 2009 (10 months)
5740.00
Return On Capital in 2009 (10 months)
17.66%
YEAR 2: 2010 Goal for 2010: 12%
Strategy: Sell Put Options Until Assigned
Capital In Use At End
Of 2010
78,000.00
Income Earned in 2010
9245.75
Return On Capital For
2010
11.85%
YEAR 3: 2011 Goal for 2011: 12%
Strategy: Sell Put Options Until Assigned
Capital Currently In Use
31263.25
Income Earned in 2011
5758.50
TOTAL INCOME EARNED
TO DATE
20744.25
Total Of My Own Capital
Required
10519.00
Number Of Shares if
assigned
500
Share Price Valuation
(Total Capital Required/Number of shares)
21.04
TRADE COMMENCED March 23 2009
ONGOING STRATEGY
- SELLING PUT OPTIONS UNTIL ASSIGNED * ACTIVE TRADES ARE HIGHLIGHTED
IN YELLOW
Carry Forward from
2010 - $14,985.75
Jan 3 2011 CLOROX
ANNOUNCES SLOWER GROWTH AND BURT'S BEES WRITE DOWN
Clorox Co gave a disappointing outlook this morning
and also advised that it would write down the value of its
Burt's Bees acquisition. The earnings forecast for 2011 was
between 4.05 to 4.20 a share, but I would think this would
now be revised downwards. Part of the problem Clorox has is
it is focused primarily on the United States while so many
of its competitors, like Proctor and Gamble are
international with their focus on emerging markets. The
United States is a mature market and this will make it
difficult for Clorox to continue to expand as the same pace
as other more international focused companies. As well the
write down of the value of Burt's Bees shows again the
fallacy of overpaying for acquisitions. Basically, when
Clorox paid 925 million for Burt's Bees plus an additional
25 million for tax benefits, it paid probably 250 million
too much. I would believe the write down will easily be 250
million. With its shares down 4% this morning I stepped in
and sold 5 put contracts for JAN $60.00 for .60 cents, on
the news.
Jan 3 11
60.65
STO 5 Naked Puts JAN 60 @ .60
13.25
30013.25
286.75
0.95
15272.50
Jan 21 11
63.74
Expiry 5 Put Options JAN 60 expired
Jan 25 11
63.27
STO 5 Naked Puts Feb 60 @ .50
13.25
30013.25
236.75
0.78
15509.25
FEB 11 2011 Carl Icahn's
announcement to the Securities and Exchange Commission
of his investment in Clorox boosted the stock over 9% in
one day as Clorox set a new 52 week high of $72.43 before
pulling back. Ichan said he likes Clorox's "emphasis on
'mega-trends'" and its portfolio of brands. He also said he
supports the company's plan to buy back 10 to 11
million shares by the end of this fiscal year. Ichan said
that he believes Clorox is undervalued and he may speak with
its directors.
So is Clorox
"undervalued"? It's true that it has popular names like
Glad, Clorox Bleach, Fresh Step, Kingsford Charcoal, Hidden
Valley dressing and KC Masterpiece barbecue sauce. But right
now sales of cleaning and household products are being
discounted as consumers remain bargain shopping, picking up
no name brands at much lower prices.
As well
Clorox's announcement of the Burt's Bees fiasco on Jan 3
2011 is another sign that the company has lots of tough
slogging ahead.
On top of that, commodity
costs are rising, especially on resin, a key component of
Clorox's packaging and containers. Clorox earlier this month
said input costs were expected to rise $70 million this
fiscal year alone and will put pressure on their products
for price increases.
Here is
what Ichan owns presently: He is controlling
12.5 million Clorox shares,
including 1 million common shares, which he bought on
Thursday and Friday (Feb 10 and 11) at an average cost of
$66.35. He is also holding 11.5 million shares underlying
call options which expire late in 2012. The average
per share cost of the options was $22.23 and they are all in
the money at prices between $61.17 and 66.26. If we assume
exercise of those calls, that would make him Clorox's
largest holder.
For me I am pleased with his
announcement as he has placed all of my put options out of
the money. I expect my Feb naked puts will expire worthless
in another week and I then will hold for a bit to see what
happens to the stock. I believe it may pull back toward the
$65 level which I feel is top value presently for Clorox.
Feb 18 11
68.15
Expiry: 5 Put Options Feb 60 expired /
6 Put Options Feb 65 expired
15509.25
POSITION
UPDATE Feb 18 2011: With Feb options expiry my Clorox ended
up expiring. I am left hold 5 naked puts for April at
$65.00. Ichan's announcement of his 9.6% position in Clorox
as being "undervalued" I feel smacks of stock manipulation.
Ichan is notorious for his "announcements" and grand
standing. Do you think he unloaded some shares on the big
jump up? The next day the stock came back to earth. I will
wait a few days as this is a slow grinding stock. How can it
be "undervalued" as Ichan put it. I guess you can believe
any stock is "undervalued" if you want, but the earnings
from Clorox have not been stellar. The company is not
diversified among emerging markets like Johnson and Johnson
is. In fact most of its sales still depend on the United
States. It's recent acknowledgement of overpaying for Burt's
Bees is just another sign of "nothing to get too excited
about here." There is no point in jumping back into selling
naked puts until I see some selling. Then I will consider my
"options"
Mar 15 11
67.00
STO 5 NP Apr $67.50 @ 1.15
(expired)
13.25
33763.25
561.75
1.66
16,071.00
Mar 15 2011: I
believe that Clorox will hang on long enough for me to sell
the April 67.50 put options. Long term though I am not convinced
that the higher price for Clorox can last.
Expiry: 5 Naked Puts April 65 expired
5 Naked Puts April
67.50 expired
16,071.00
Apr 15 2011: All
of my put options expired freeing up a total cash position of
66,250.00, The question now is where to put it back to work.
Looking at the chart, all the good news goes back to Carl
Ichan's announcement. Is there real support here? I doubt
it. $65 is a far more comfortable level, but even at $65 I
had sold that naked put for quite a while and it was always
in the money until his announcement. Any bad news or a
severe stock pullback and this stock will probably head to
$62.50 to $60.00 where there is a lot more support.
So now I have to
figure out where to sell the next set of put options. I think
the summer is slower and the stock could pullback. Last
summer (2010) in July the stock got down to 62.50. Time to
split my naked puts and ease my way into the selling put
options.
Apr 15 11
69.64
STO 5 Naked Puts May $67.50 @ .80
13.25
33763.25
386.75
1.14
16457.75
May 3 2011:
INCREASED COMMODITY PRICES HURT CLOROX STOCK AND EARNINGS:
Clorox third
quarter earnings fell 8.5% and did not meet analysts
estimates. Higher commodity prices are taking a toll on
earnings. To offset these costs Clorox is raising prices on
many products. Glad garbage bags have been increased 9.5%.
The price of
gasoline alone is hurting bottom lines for many Clorox
products that have to be transported to markets in the
United States and around the world.
But raising prices in the environment Clorox faces may not
work as demand for many of Clorox products is declining.
Clorox stock has been up ever since Carl
Icahn's announcement
about Clorox being undervalued and his large holdings in the
stock. (I wonder if he is still holding all those shares?).
Clorox shares
fell more than 4.2% and just like Procter & Gamble Co. (PG),
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) and Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB),
Clorox expects 2012 will be even more difficult.
For the
quarter ended March 31, Clorox reported a profit of $151
million, or $ 1.09 a share, down from $165 million, or
$1.16, a year earlier. Earnings from continuing operations
rose to $1.02 from $1.00
Sales rose
1.3% to $1.3 billion, with 3% growth in its
cleaning-products business offset by a 3% decline in its
household products division that was hurt by weak
performance by Glad trash bags and storage containers.
Analysts in general had an average forecast of $ 1.04 per
share and were expecting 1.32 billion.
So the
question now is where is Clorox stock headed? Below is the
12 month Clorox stock history chart and it may hold a clue.
Back on Feb 18 2011 above, I indicated that I believed
Clorox stock had weak support at $62.50. I still believe
that support is weak at that level. At $60.00 there is much
better support on this stock. But looking at the chart for
the year, I would say that there are three levels of support
for Clorox stock prices.
First is
around $64.50, the second at $62.50 and the third at $60.00.
Each of these has support at varying strengths with the best
at $60.00. However when I look at last year (2010) stock
history and volume, there is much more support at $57.50
than any of the above three Clorox price levels. I believe
anything above $68.00 is over valued and anything below
$58.00 is undervalued. I hope to sell right within the mid
range as per below. Right now I am holding 5 put options for
May $67.50. If they expire I will not sell at that level
again. However if they do not expire I will buy to close and
roll them either out, or down and out.
I may be
caught here and fine my strikes in the money, if the stock
begins to pull back. I am not concerned since I have already
made $16.700.00 to date which will reduce my price level if
assigned. In fact, I plan to increase the amount of capital
being used from about $34,000 to around $66,000 so I can
sell more options. There are a few reasons for this:
1) With
$66,000 of capital, LESS the $16790.00 already made I am
risking roughly $50000.00 of capital, which if assigned,
would put me in Clorox Stock at $50.00.
2) If
assigned, the Clorox dividend is safe and at $50.00, the
$2.20 (present Clorox Dividend), earns me 4.4% and I would
sell Clorox covered calls.
3) However
the main reason I have increased the capital I will risk
with the Clorox trade is volatility.
The volatility level on
Clorox Stock for much of the past 6 months has been low at
around 13%. This has made just "OK" option premiums. Now
with more investor fear the volatility in Clorox is already
up to 16% and hopefully will climb higher. Today I sold the
June $65 put option strike for .70 cents. I am hoping this
is a sign of even better Clorox options premiums to come.
May 3 11
67.47
Sold 5 put options 18JUN11 $65 @ .70
13.25
32513.25
336.75
1.03
16794.50
May 20 2011:
Clorox At The Crossroads
Today I sold 5 puts but all the way out to Oct and I bought
and closed my June Puts. With Clorox now trading in what
i consider is over valued prices, I have adjusted my trade
strategy.
You
can read about Clorox At The Crossroads here.
May 20 11
69.95
Expiry: 5 Naked Puts May 67.50 Expired
May 20 11
69.95
Sold 5 Naked Puts Oct $67.50 at $2.19
This works out to 0.64% per month
13.25
33,763.25
1081.75
3.20
17876.25
May 20 11
70.12
Bought to close 5 Put Options 18JUN11
$65 @ .08
13.25
(53.25)
(0.16)
17823.00
July 1 2011 : Clorox remains range bound.
First is
around $64.50, the second at $62.50 and the third at $60.00.
Each of these has support at varying strengths with the best
at $60.00. However when I look at last year (2010) stock
history and volume, there is much more support at $57.50
than any of the above three Clorox price levels. I believe
anything above $68.00 is over valued and anything below
$58.00 is undervalued. I hope to sell right within the mid
range as per below. Right now I am holding 5 put options for
May $67.50. If they expire I will not sell at that level
again. However if they do not expire I will buy to close and
roll them either out, or down and out.
I may be
caught here and fine my strikes in the money, if the stock
begins to pull back. I am not concerned since I have already
made $16.700.00 to date which will reduce my price level if
assigned. In fact, I plan to increase the amount of capital
being used from about $34,000 to around $66,000 so I can
sell more options. There are a few reasons for this:
1) With
$66,000 of capital, LESS the $16790.00 already made I am
risking roughly $50000.00 of capital, which if assigned,
would put me in Clorox Stock at $50.00.
2) If
assigned, the Clorox dividend is safe and at $50.00, the
$2.20 (present Clorox Dividend), earns me 4.4% and I would
sell Clorox covered calls.
3) However
the main reason I have increased the capital I will risk
with the Clorox trade is volatility.
The volatility level on
Clorox Stock for much of the past 6 months has been low at
around 13%. This has made just "OK" option premiums. Now
with more investor fear the volatility in Clorox is already
up to 16% and hopefully will climb higher. Today I sold the
June $65 put option strike for .70 cents. I am hoping this
is a sign of even better Clorox options premiums to come.
July 15 2011: With Carl Ichan's
sort of Bid for Clorox shares, I sold my calls and bought to
close my August $67.50 puts. I see no reason to stay in
either of them. I am still holding the Oct $67.50 puts for a
bit longer. The August $62.50 puts are at .05 cents so I
would rather just let them go as they only cost me $72.00
and were for protection and who knows, if the Clorox "sale"
doesn't work out which is common with Carl Ichan, then they
just might be worth something in a month.
You can read about Carl
Ichan's sort of bid here.
I can see many wondering why I
would close my August $67.50 puts which I sold. The reason
is because you just never know with Ichan how things may
work out. He is notorious for "bad choices" and many of his
"endeavors" don't always yield great results as it were.
Therefore for .15 cents why bother to be exposed. Besides I
have always felt that at $67.50 the stock is fully valued
and I am holding $67.50 puts which I sold for October.
Jul 15 11
75.25
Sold 3 Calls August $70 @ 5.20
10.75
1549.25
19,400.50
Jul 15 11
75.25
Bought to Close 3 Puts August $67.50 @
.15
10.75
(55.75)
19344.75
Aug 4 2011: What an incredible
day. The market ended down 511 points and amazingly my
August $62.50 puts made a very nice profit! Who would have
thought! Clorox is back to before Carl Ichan's bid. Finally
Clorox is coming back to earth. I couldn't believe that my
August $62.50 puts made money AND I rolled my Oct $67.50
puts. Nice to see this stock back to earth. For now I am
leaving my October $67.50 puts alone as I wait to see if the
market can bounce back.
Aug 4 11
64.55
Sold 4 PUTS August $62.50 @ .60
12.00
25012.00
228.00
0.90
19572.75
Aug 19 11
64.00
Expiry: 4 Puts August $62.50 expired
Aug 19 11
64.00
Sold 4 Puts 17SEP11 $57.50 at .65
12.00
23012.00
248.00
1.07
19820.75
Sep 16 11
69.47
Expiry: 4 Puts 17SEP11 $57.50 expired
Sep 22 11
65.65
Sold 5 Puts 22OCT11 $57.50 at $.70
13.25
30013.25
336.75
1.1%
20157.50
Oct 21 11
69.56
Expiry: 5 Puts Oct $67.50 expired
5 PUTS Oct $57.50 expired