2010:
Market Capitalization $8.8B
Revenue (FYR) $5.0B
Total Debt $3.14B
EPS $3.65
P/E Ratio 17.5x
Shares Outstanding 139.4 M
Avg. Daily Share Volume (Last 10 Days) 1.8 M
Dividend: $2.20
Book Value: $2.00
P/Cash Flow: 12.6X
Operating Margin: 15.20%
Clorox Co is a profitable Personal & Household Prods.
company that trades on the NYSE. I am sure you will
recognize the products from this company - Brita, Armor All,
STP, Glad, Burt's Bees, Hidden Valley, KC Masterpiece,
Kingsford charcoal, Green Works, and of course Clorox Bleach,
among many others.
The Company sells its products primarily
through mass merchandisers, grocery stores and other retail
outlets. It primarily sells these products in North America,
while having a smaller presence outside our continent. It is
working to grow its brands beyond our borders and has
increased its revenue and its dividend each year. This is a
large consumer products corporation with an attractive
dividend.
Over the next few years
Clorox believes it will grow its revenue between 3 to 5
percent annually. This could be higher if its brands become
more common place outside North America. Presently they have
10 number one brands out of the top 16 consumer brands.
Clorox is very strong when it comes to its brand names and
that could be the key to my success as well.
The biggest
problem Clorox faces is that many of its brands are related
to the commodities which they are derived from. This has
meant an increase in actual cost to produce by about 600
million dollars annually. The company believes this cost
will decrease by about 100 million annually starting in 2010
going forward. They have managed to increase the cost of
their products aside from Glad, by close to 50% and the
consumer has not balked at these price increases. This bodes
well for Clorox brands.
Their profit margin is around 9.85%
which is reasonable for a consumer products company. Their
debt is 3.15 billion and declining gradually. Return on
assets is again good at 13.96% but book value is poor at
$2.00 per share outstanding. The chart below shows that the
price for the stock however remains range bound, which is
okay for my strategy as I want low volatility in the stock
in order to have some degree of comfort for both my puts and
calls.
Terms
Of Use
By using this site,
you agree to be bound by its terms of use.
The full terms of
use can be read here.
If you do not agree to the terms of use, do not access or use
this site.
Nothing presented is financial advice, trading advice or
recommendations. Everything presented is the author's ideas
only. The author accepts no liability for its use including
errors and omissions. You alone are solely responsible for your
own investing and trading. There are considerable risks involved
in implementing any investment strategies and losses can be
large. Trade at your own risk.
CLOROX (CLX)
- 2010
Clorox Stock Symbol - CLX
ONGOING EVALUATION
& TRADE
Year 2
Strategy: Selling Naked Puts Until Assigned
This will
be a core holding. Options are thinly traded and premiums
are reasonable but not terrific. However my strategy with
this stock is selling naked puts at the money and in the
money to follow the stock movements. The stock has an
excellent trading range and is widely held by institutions.
The current strategy is selling naked puts until I either
accept assignment OR get assigned shares. Then I will turn
to covered calls and collect the dividend. Should the stock
fall too low making covered call selling impractical I
will add to my stock position through selling naked puts to
lower my overall cost.
Should you find my strategy and ongoing evaluation of
this trade of value I hope you will consider a tip
for the time I spend detailing out this trade.
I have set up a Paypal account for those
who would like to donate. Thank you in advance. Remember, nothing on my site is financial advice.
They are just my ideas and opinions. Investing is risky and losses can be large. Trade
at your own risk.
Read the
terms of use
YEAR 1: 2009 - Trade Commenced March 2009 Goal for 2009:
10% (10 months)
Strategy: Sell Naked Puts Until Assigned
Capital In Use At End Of 2009
32,500.00
Income Earned in 2009 (10 months)
5740.00
Return On Capital in 2009 (10 months)
17.66%
YEAR 2: 2010 Goal for 2010: 12%
Strategy: Sell Naked Puts Until Assigned
Capital In Use At End
Of 2010
78,000.00
Income Earned in 2010
9245.75
Return On Capital For
2010
11.85%
TRADE COMMENCED March 23 2009
ONGOING STRATEGY
- SELLING NAKED PUTS UNTIL ASSIGNED
Feb 4 10
60.38
BTC 4 NP FEB 60 @ .60
(1.0)
12.00
(252.00)
5488.00
Feb 4 10
60.38
STO 4 NP MAR 60 @ 1.35
2.2
12.00
528.00
6016.00
Mar 8 10
61.57
STO 4 NP Apr 65 @ 3.70
COMMENTS: I am not moving to the $65.00 put to sell as I
believe the stock is working its way towards that point. See
my full comments, strategy and chart below as per Mar 8
2010. I will close the Mar 60 puts shortly when the premium
reaches .05 cents.
5.6
12.00
1468.00
7484.00
Mar 8 2010:
First, I must refer back to the Nov 6 2009 trade
update below. At that time the goal was to sell
the $60 puts for premium as the stock works its
way higher to meet me at $60.00.
Hypothetically let's see how two trades could
have worked out.
On June 19 I was assigned shares at $60.00. In
our example then, let us say that on June 19 I
had purchased 400 shares at 55.00 and sold them
in December at $60.00.
Total $2000.00
I
would have picked up the Jul and October
Dividends for a total of $1.00 X 400 shares =
$552.75
Option Income from selling covered calls - If I
had sold 4 contracts $60.00 CC from Jun to
December when assigned, based on the covered
calls I did sell during this period I would have
earned $1280.00 in call premiums
Total income would have been $3680.00 / 22,000 =
16.7% - not bad for 7 months.
During the same period if I had sold the $60.00
puts I would have earned:
June
19 2009 Stock at $56.07 - 4 July $60.00 puts @
4.22 = 1680.00
July
17 2009 Stock at $58.07 - 4 Aug $60.00 puts @
2.26 = 904.00
Aug
21 2009 Stock at $58.69 - 4 Sep $60.00 puts @
1.59 = 636.00
Sep
18 2009 Stock at $57.93 - 4 Oct $60.00 puts @
2.36 = 944.00
Oct
16 2009 Stock at $58.17 - 4 Nov $60.00 puts @
2.15 = 860.00
Nov
20 2009 Stock at $59.65 - 4 Dec $60.00 puts @
.55 = 220.00
Dec
18 2009 Stock at $61.40 - Dec puts expired
Total income $5244.00 / $24,000 (400 X $60
strike) = 21.85% AND no shares ever assigned.
Either trade would have been beneficial, however
writing the $60.00 put would have improved our
return by 5.15%. Meanwhile my $24,000 was in a
high yield daily interest savings earnings 1%
annual or .60 cents per day X 252 days (approx)
= $151.20 additional income.
The second part of the Nov
6 2009 goal was to sell a smaller number of puts
out of the money in order to generate some
additional income, while at the same time
protecting the stock a little bit should we fall
back. If that occurred and I had to accept
assignment at $60.00, the $55 puts would
naturally increase in premium value. If I had
been assigned at $60.00 and then the stock fell
through $55.00, the objective then would have
been to try to roll the $55 puts monthly until
there was no further premiums and then consider
accepting assignment at $55.00. Things though
have changed a bit, and all in my favor. I have
now generated $6000 in cash. Enough to buy 100
shares of clorox at 60.00 if I wanted, which I
don't. The stock touched 62 back in December,
pulled back to 59 and now is back to resistance
at 62.00. I intend now to move to the $65.00
puts and sell at that level until, A) I am
assigned or B) The stock moves beyond 65 in
which case I will then sell the $70.00 put or C)
Until the stock falls so low that there is no
premium left at $65.00. I am therefore going to
follow the same actions I took in Nov. Back then
with the stock trading around $58.00, I moved to
ITM and commenced selling the $60.00 put. This
generated excellent returns and basically the
stock has now built a base around the $60.00
level. Unless strong selling comes into the
market, I believe Clorox is heading to $65.00.
I believe it took Clorox about 5 months to build
a base at $60.00 and I think it may take into
the summer to build a base at $65.00. Meanwhile
by selling the $65.00 put, I am taking advantage
of the possible rise in the stock by gathering
premium every month, while the stock works its
way to meeting me at $65.00. I have now sold 2
long puts at the 55 level out to Jan 2011. We
shall see if my outlook unfolds as I hope.
Mar 9 10
61.88
BTC 2 NP Apr 55 @ .05
(0.09)
9.50
(19.50)
7464.50
Mar 9 10
61.88
STO 2 NP Jan 2011 $55 @ 2.05
3.7
9.50
390.50
7855.00
Mar 12 10
62.80
BTC 4 NP Mar 60 @ .05
(0.08)
12.00
(32.00)
7823.00
Apr 16 10
64.49
Expiry: Bought To Close 4 NP Apr 65 @
.50
(0.76)
12.00
(212.00)
7611.00
Apr 16 10
64.49
Bought to close 2 NP Jan 2011 $55 @
1.35
Comments: As just a little over 1 month has past since I
sold this on Mar 9 and the return has been excellent for 1
month. I have elected to close this and move to July 65 for
these 2 naked puts. Should premium disappear from the July
65 puts, I will close these early.
(2.4)
9.50
(279.50)
7331.50
Apr 16 10
64.49
STO 3 Naked Puts May 65 @ 1.90 COMMENTS: Read the change in strategy,
below to understand the steps I have taken to continue
trading in this stock.
This commits $19,500 and leaves $26,000 for further naked
put writing.
2.8
10.75
559.25
7890.75
April 16 2010: UPDATE:
WHAT TO DO WHEN I
BELIEVE MY STOCK IS FULLY VALUED? With Clorox
pushing the 65 level what would be the best
course of action with my naked puts? In the
above chart I can see that in the past 6 months
the stock has not been below $57.84 which was
back on Oct 21 2009. That is 7.16 from $65.00 or
10.70% lower. I rolled from my April 65 puts to
May 65 puts. At $65 though I feel the stock is
possibly fully valued and should it push higher
it may be stretching into overvalued territory.
So how would I continue trading Clorox? I think
it is a strong company with a safe trading
range. I want to take advantage of that trading
range, but I want to be able to optimize the
income I can earn against the capital I have
committed. How should I do that, now that the
stock has climbed to these lofty levels?
For some clues as to how I can continue with
Clorox, I normally look back 5 years which is in
the chart BELOW. Here I can see that $65.00 is
getting toward the top end. Unless earnings can
dramatically increase, this stock is going to
have a hard time moving a lot higher. I have
marked in red the $65.00 region as well as the
$57.84. I can see that at $57.84 the stock has
been reasonably valued. Probably anywhere
between $65 and $57.84 would be a good area to
trade, but premiums are poor beyond the ATM and
ITM strikes. To understand my strategy on stocks
I consider fully valued, please read the summary
directly below the 5 year chart.
SUMMARY: It is obvious what I need to
do at this point. I have committed $45,500 of
capital to this stock. These are steps I will
now take:
1) Usually I bring up a list of the last
trading days since the previous expiration. The
chart below shows the period Mar 22 2010 to
April 16 2010. I have underlined the low points
for those 20 trading days. There were 6 days
when the stock pulled back to below 63.30. That
means roughly 30% of the past 20 days were
periods when I could have sold puts for better
premiums on either the $65 strike or the $60
strike.
2) Those will become my points of interest.
I set my trading program to alert me whenever
Clorox falls to 63.50 to allow me enough
time to get to my computer and review put
values.Meanwhile I will buy back the Jan 55 puts
to release all my capital for naked put writing.
3) I want to be able to write a total of 7
naked puts each month if possible. I realize
that I will not always be able to judge the best
time to sell the put so to augment my income and
insure I am generating some revenue every month
I will sell 3 Naked Puts at the money
immediately and roll them each month at
expiration. The rest of my capital I will commit
each time the stock pulls back below 63.50.
Remember that I have confidence in this stock.
Every time it falls in value to my stock levels
($63.30 and lower) I will sell the additional
puts. If I am wrong and the stock continues to
fall, I take comfort knowing that I am short
puts on a great company. If I did not have this
confidence, every time the stock falls I would
be waiting, wondering if the stock this time
is actually going to fall further. All the while
possibly missing the opportunity to sell on any
weakness. This is not the way to sell naked puts
in my strategy. I know the share prices I will
be waiting for - when the stock falls to it then
I sell the naked puts.
May 3 10
64.79
BTC 3 Naked Puts May 65 @ 1.00
(1.5)
10.75
(310.75)
7580.00
May 6 10
62.80
STO 3 Naked Puts Jun 65 @ 3.00
4.6
10.75
889.25
8469.25
Jun 2 10
62.80
STO 5 Naked Puts Jun 60 @ .30
0.50
13.25
136.75
8606.00
Jun 3 10
64.07
BTC 3 Naked Puts Jun 65 @ 1.37
COMMENTS: With today's rise the market has just touched the
200 day moving average but can it cross it convincingly?
Whatever happens I will sell July 65 Puts tomorrow depending
on the job numbers.
(2.1)
10.75
(421.75)
8184.25
Jun 4 10
62.90
STO 3 Naked Puts Jul 65 @ 2.90
COMMENTS: With today's sell off I can double my return by
selling out to July at the same strike. If the market breaks
and falls further, all stocks will pullback. I will buy and
sell this strike for some time or until there is no premiums
available. Buying on up days and selling on down days will
continue to garner income.
4.4
10.75
859.25
9043.50
Jun 18 10
65.07
Expiry: 5 Naked Puts Jun 60 expired
See my comments for Jun 18 2010
below.
June 18 2010:
With June options expiry the stock is back to
65.00. During the past month the stock fell
about 5% allowing me to sell Jun 60 puts for
additional income, while continuing to roll my
$65 naked puts, month to month. At this rate I
should be able to attain my goal of $4500.00 of
income for 2010. This stock has been an
incredible performer and trades in a tight
range. Meanwhile I have generated $9043.00 to
Jun 18 which reduces my stock cost to $34.86, a
price point Clorox has not seen in a great many
years. The goal here is to continue garnering
income and the objective is to sell naked puts
until something occurs hat forces me to take
assignment on the shares. You can see that the
strategy of "Walk The Profit Home To Mama" is
paying off handsomely, as the stock continually
walks itself up to the $65.00 price and then
pulls back, allowing me to sell naked puts at
the two different strikes: namely $60 and $65.
Jun 21 10
64.88
STO 3 Naked Puts Aug 65 @ 1.95
Comments: In any pullback I will sell the Aug 60 naked puts.
I sold 3 Aug 65 puts as I expect the Jul 65 puts will lose
more value as we approach July expiration.
3.0
10.75
585.00
9628.50
Jun 29 10
62.78
STO 2 Naked Puts Jan 65 @ 5.20
Comments: Clorox remains very strong despite the market
downturn. I am continuing to hope for a summer rally that
will keep this stock hovering around the 64 to 65 dollar
range.
8.0
9.50
1030.50
10659.00
Jul 6 10
61.78
STO 5 Naked Puts August 60 @ .87 -
Comments: With today's move lower I took advantage of the
premiums to sell the August 60 puts.
1.4
13.25
421.75
11080.75
Jul 6 10
61.78
STO 2 Naked Puts Jul 65 @ 3.40
Comments: This is a great spot to sell another 2 naked puts
for Jul 65. If I am wrong and CLX moves lower, then I have 5
naked puts for Jul 65 that I can roll out to Aug or split
them between Sep and Oct. If though the stock moves up, then
I will close these puts. This fits perfectly with my strategy of "Walk That Profit
Home To Mama" which you can read by selecting the link
above and scrolling to the bottom of the page under the
heading "Walk That Profit Home To Mama". I am confident that
this is the 3rd trading range for this stock and 65 should
be the high for this trading range for possible another
short while. I am unsure if we can move higher from here,
but I think 60.00 is probably the low for a while in this
trading range.
5.2
9.50
670.50
11751.25
July 13 2010: Look at the chart on Clorox.
Since last July this stock has been the perfect
candidate for the "Walk That Profit Home To
Mama" strategy.
If you haven't read it, click here.
This stock has had 3 moves higher, to date. I
have labelled them 1,2 and 3. By picking the
high and low range of the trade I can try to
sell the high strike naked put when the stock is
falling and then buy it back each time it
hopefully rises and roll to the next month. By
doing small lots of contracts such as 2 or 3, it
allows me more opportunity to have some possibly
expire and possibly catch the stock on another
move lower. Meanwhile I can also sell naked puts
in lots of 5 contracts at or just below the
lower range strike put. For example in section 3
of the chart below, I have been selling the $65
naked put which is at the high strike and trying
to sell the $60.00 naked put on the bottom or
low of the range.
Could there be another move higher coming
shortly? This has been the case throughout this
trade, however it is going to take strong
earnings and I think an overall higher move in
the overall market, to reach a higher range.
Today the stock again reached the $65 dollar
level. July options expire this Friday and it
will be interesting to see if the stock can hold
around the 65 level. This time though, if the
stock does hold, I will be rolling these 65
naked puts, two months out, into September as I
have naked puts already sold for August. I will
start over by selling small put contracts or 1
or 2 and working my way up to 5 or 6 at the $65
strike. You can see the strategy at work by
looking at the chart below and then following
the trades as I executed them above.
So how well does the strategy perform? Let's
take a look. SAMPLE A) OWNING 600 SHARES FROM MARCH 2009
Since March 2009 the stock has moved from around
$50.00 to $65.00. - a gain of $15.00 or 30%. If
I had bought 600 shares @ 50 I would have tied
up $30,000 in capital and I would have returned
$9000.00 + $1476.00 in dividends = $10476.00 SAMPLE B) WALK THAT PROFIT HOME TO MAMA
STRATEGY FROM MARCH 2009
With my strategy I have returned 11751.25 - and
used a wide range of capital from $15,000 to the
present high of $95,000. Much of this though has
been margin and much of it has been for very
short trades of a week or two. On average I have
been using the same amount of capital - $30,000.
SUMMARY AND COMPARISON
The returns are very comparable, but I have a
very long range outlook on Clorox and I could be
trading at this range for many more months. The
strategy I employ though has captured the same
return as holding the stock but I believe with
less risk involved and more flexibility. There
are though distinct advantages of just having
held the stock which includes less commissions,
gaining the dividend (although as I am in Canada
the dividend would be taxed as straight income),
less time consuming as there would be no real
need to follow the stock if I was a long term
investor in this company and finally my overall
break even in the stock would be considerably
lower.
Through selling the naked puts throughout this
trade my one big advantage has been that I have
actually captured the profit throughout the
trade and locked it in. The buy and hold
investor still has the profit "on paper" only
and will not realize it until he cashes the
stock out. I on the other hand am holding
$11,751.25 in cash taken since March 2009 for
this trade. At any stage I could pay the cost to
close this trade and either leave the stock with
my original capital still in tact or move that
capital into shares of the stock and just earn
the dividend, which being an option trader means
selling covered calls. This really shows an
investor the importance of stock selection and
watching the chart for ranges in order to select
proper strike prices and watch for the stock to
rise and fall.
Jul 15 10
65.00
BTC 5 Naked Puts JUL 65 @ .25
(0.38)
13.25
(138.25)
11613.00
Aug 16 10
64.30
STO 5 Naked Puts Sep 60 @ .25
.41
13.25
111.75
11724.75
Aug 20 10
64.45
Expiry: BTC 3 Naked Puts Aug 65 @ .63
(0.90)
10.75
(199.75)
11525.00
Aug 20 10
64.40
Expiry: STO 3 Naked Puts Sep 65 @ 1.45
2.2
10.75
424.25
11949.25
Aug 20 10
64.42
Expiry: 5 Naked Puts Aug 60 expired
Sep 10 10
65.85
STO 4 Naked Puts JAN 55 @ .60
Comments: Read my comments below under Ongoing Evaluation Of
Clorox Company, for September 10
1.09
12.00
228.00
12177.25
Sep 10 2010: Clorox continues to remain
strong as earnings and growth continue to make
this stock an excellent choice for my strategy.
As well I believe Clorox could be a good
takeover candidate for the larger companies in
this same field as Clorox market cap is just 9.6
Billion, while companies such as Procter and
Gamble have a market cap of 171 billion.
I am confident the September 60 naked puts will
expire worthless. With the stock remaining
strong I will now adjust my positions. I will
increase the number of $65 strike puts to 4 from
3 and decrease the number of puts being sold at
a lower strike from 5 to 4 contracts. The
October 60 puts will only bring in .15 cents
which would work out to .60 cents by January.
Therefore I looked at January and the $55 put
strike is trading at .60 cents. I sold 4 naked
puts for JAN $55 at .60. Next Friday when
options expire I will sell 4 put contracts for
Oct 65. I have already reached my goal of
$4500.00 annual income some time ago. Now I am
just padding my Clorox trade with more earned
income as I prepare for next year (2011) when I
believe the stock will either trade between 65
and 70 or will continue to trade between 60 and
65.
Sep 17 10
66.91
STO 2 Naked Puts Oct 65 @ .40
Comments: Today is options expiry. I am sure my Sept 65 will
expire but sadly the premiums are falling for the 65.
However I am content to stay at 65 for the time being. I
want to see some strength for a while above $65 in the stock
before moving higher. I am splitting up my 4 puts between
October and I will sell the other 2 out to April.
BTC 2 Naked Puts Oct 65 @ .51
Comments: With the fall lower this morning, it made a lot of
sense to take advantage of the premium and move to November.
It's simple math. I lost .11 cents rolling from Oct to Nov
65. I made 1.47 on the roll which is .735 per month - almost
double my original sell of .40 cents for the put.
(0.78)
9.50
(111.50)
12837.25
Sep 23 10
65.90
STO 2 Naked Puts Nov 65 @ 1.58
2.4
9.50
306.50
13143.75
Oct 13 10
68.70
BTC 4 Naked Puts Jan 55 @ .15
COMMENTS: This is a roll up from 55 to 65
(0.27)
12.00
(72.00)
13071.75
Oct 15 10
67.95
STO 4 Naked Puts Jan 65 @ 1.40
2.1
12.00
548.00
13619.75
Oct 15 2010: THE ROLL UP: If you recall the
stock chart from July 13 (below) you recall how
Clorox has set a variety of trading ranges. The
stock has not broke out of that range and moved
higher. So the concern now is waiting for the
new range to develop, IF it does develop. Often
a stock breaks out only to find there is no
support at higher prices and it pulls back to
support. When selling naked puts, the secret is
to wait for that range to develop. As such I
have rolled up from Jan 55 to Jan 65 which right
now, is the upper end of the range I am willing
to selling naked puts for. By rolling up in the
same month (Jan), I can reap more income and
keep the roll further out, available in case the
stock slips back OR should the stock establish a
new range and let me move higher with my
strikes. It's worth the weight, but do you
notice how I am no longer selling in the money
puts. That is because if you look back at the
chart for Clorox, we are moving into new high
territory which is untested as the stock has
NEVER been this high in its history. So could
Clorox be a takeover target and we are just not
being told? Why the big move higher,
particularly in a market where earnings are
good, but not spectacular? What is driving the
stock higher? Dare I say a possible takeover?
Oct 27 10
65.95
STO 4 Naked Puts Dec 65 @ 1.10
1.6
12.00
428.00
14047.75
NOV 3 2010: The earnings news did not meet
expectations and the stock fell 5%. Now what? I
have sold all my naked puts spread out over a
variety of months, but all at the $65.00 strike.
Should I worry and close some puts? Well let's
look at the stock. In 2009 when the stock
recovered from the selloff of 08-09, the stock
ran up to $62.50. Throughout 2010 the stock has
moved back and forth but $62.50 for most of the
year has been in the low point. There appears to
be quite a lot of support at $62.50. When the
stock moved above $65.00 I rolled up to $65.00,
but for most of the year, I kept selling my
$65.00 strike naked puts waiting for the stock
to "walk" home to my strike. It did and walked
right past. But looking at the chart I can see
that the $65.00 strike was the top range for
quite some time until it finally broke out. But
the earnings didn't support the breakout. It is
important to remember that since September the
market itself has moved higher, and during such
an uptrend investors will pick quality names
that appear strong and buy into them, moving the
price higher. With naked puts, I can pick my
strikes and refuse to get caught up in the
buying frenzy. Clorox is a strong company and
remained in an uptrend for much of 2010. It was
an obvious choice for investors to jump into in
September pushing it from 65 to 69 in short
order, a quick 6% run up.
I have a lot of confidence in my stock picks.
Clorox is one such company. I have been through
this many times before so I have my strategy
already mapped out. First with the stock fallen
below $65.00, this is an opportunity to try to
capture additional premium by rolling forward.
Today I rolled my Nov $65 puts into Jan $65. I
will roll my December $65 strikes further out as
December expiry arrives. The stock has a lot of
support at $62.50. So any move lower than $62.50
will meet with resistance Looking at the chart I
believe should the stock fall below $62.50, it
may bottom around $59.00 to $60.00. I am
confident looking at the chart that Clorox will
maintain it's range with $65.00 being near the
top end. The advantage of selling further out,
is obvious.
By rolling my 2 Nov puts into Jan, this gives me
6 Jan 65 puts. This will make my strategy of
reducing the number of put contracts in the
money easier with each roll. It is difficult to
roll just 2 naked puts and reduce it by 1
contract on a roll, without taking a net debit.
However rolling from 6 contracts to 5 and then
from 5 to 4 and so on, is a lot easier.
However since my contracts were spread out from
November to April, and all at 65, it would be
best to work toward getting them together into a
larger group and then reduce the contracts in
each group with each roll further out in time.
Meanwhile by continuing to roll I will gain more
capital effectively reducing my eventual price
on the stock while reducing the number of put
contracts at risk. Meanwhile Clorox is paying a
$2.20 annual dividend. If I end up being
assigned at the $65 level, my break even of
$53.14 translates into a 4% dividend yield. It
is obvious why continuing to bring in more
premium while reducing the number of put
contracts at risk, is a great strategy. I am
earning money, my base capital remains intact
but still not actually invested in the stock and
each roll reduces the number of contracts and
frees up capital to be invested at a lower
strike.
For many investors, when their stock pulls back
and puts them in the money, they panic. Far too
many just close and take the loss and get out. I
suppose that is a strategy, but I have picked
stocks I like. I have a lot of confidence in my
stocks. Therefore a pullback like this one, is
an opportunity to grab additional premium and
just like my Microsoft or Intel positions,
slowly reduce the number of put contracts that
are at risk, each time I roll further out.
Does this strategy work? I have been doing this
for many years on a variety of stocks and as
long as it is a quality company, I have enjoyed
good returns and when finally assigned, my cost
basis is very low.
Take a moment out and look at the Microsoft
trades and the Intel trades, two other positions
caught in the money. My Microsoft 26 puts were
in the money for a while, but the stock has
recovered and now the 26 strikes are out of the
money. Meanwhile I have been reducing the number
of contracts at 29. Who knows, perhaps with the
new gaming add on for the X-Box, Microsoft will
recover beyond my 29 strike. Meanwhile I keep my
strategy focused and continue to bring in
premium.
One thing I would mention though is how right up
until last week, there were no sell calls by
analysts on Clorox. With the stock over $68.00
they continued to rate Clorox a buy. Now, they
are rating it a hold. A few are neutral. Notice
how very few ever say "sell". This is why years
ago I turned to options to protect my trades and
studied my own stocks and their charts.
Nov 3 10
62.99
BTC 2 Naked Puts Nov 65 @ 2.10
(3.5)
9.50
(429.50)
13618.25
Nov 3 10
62.99
STO 2 Naked Puts Jan 65 @ 3.10
4.7
9.50
610.50
14228.75
Update Nov 6 2009:
I had shorted the Nov 60
puts with an eye to being assigned and to capture some of
the enormous premium of these ITM puts, back on October 13.
The stock itself has been on a rise due to the H1N1
concerns. My $3.13 puts for Nov are now trading at 1.05 to
1.20. I will be keeping an eye on the puts this week. If the
stock can hold here or move higher, the premiums will
quickly evaporate. I plan to roll these puts to the Dec 60
strike.
As well I am holding the Nov 55 puts which is designed to
generate smaller regular incomes to augment my overall
position. I will roll these to Jan 55. This is the beauty
of naked puts. While you may find yourself caught ITM at
times and worried about being assigned, always remember that
the timing of when to be assigned is your choice. Just like
a covered call, you can buy the put back and roll out or
roll out and down. Checking the technicals on a stock are
important guidelines. You can quickly see that the 80 day
support for this stock is at 56.89. My second set of naked
puts is sitting 3.3% below that at 55.00. If I average just
.50 cents six times a year on this second set of naked puts,
it means an additional 3.00 of income annually. Meanwhile if
I can continue to sell naked puts at the 60.00 strike level
and keep rolling them monthly when necessary, it too will
generate additional income. My goal here is to try to
generate an extra .50 monthly from the ATM puts, while the
stock drifts in and out of assignment at the 58.00 to 60.00
range, which is what I am planning for. This means an
additional 6.00 in income from that position. My monthly
goal was to average .75 cents per month. As this is my goal,
it makes it easy to know when to buy back the puts and roll
them. If I attain the .75 for the month, I know it is time
to start planning on the buy back and roll out. If I have
averaged more than .75 monthly, this affords me even more
choices as to when to buy back and continue rolling my
positions and take advantage of volatility and possible
option premium increases.
Therefore at the end of
the 12 month period (Sep 2010) I hope to have generated
9.00 X 600 shares = $5400.00 in income and tied up $34,500
of capital. My capital meanwhile is invested in a daily
interest high savings account earning .75% annually. At the
end of the 12 month period, I will have made about 16%
return on a slow moving stock with thinly traded options. As
well it means that when I decide to take assignment I will
be in the stock significantly lower than today’s prices.
While I would like Clorox to be a core holding for me, it
does not mean I need to buy the stock right away. I could
consider being assigned months or even years in the future,
or to never be assigned at all.
This is the reason why
so many option traders short ITM or ATM puts on stocks such
as CLOROX. They are not concerned about being assigned but
are trying to generate income off the stock by staying ITM
or ATM as much as possible. One further advantage of the
naked put over the covered call on dividend paying stocks is
that, when the stock reaches dividend time, it is important
to calculate your valuation on the call side. If the
dividend is larger than your call premium, your risk of
early exercise rises dramatically. With a naked put this is
not the case as by assigning shares to you prior to
X-Dividend, you would naturally be receiving the dividend. I
have never been assigned early on a naked put due to
dividend payouts. In some ways I feel Naked Puts offer more
flexibility than covered calls. So remember that it is your
choice when to be assigned on naked puts that are ITM.
Dec 17 10
62.51
BTC 4 Naked Puts Dec 65 @ 2.55
3.9
12.00
(1032.00)
13196.75
DEC 17 2010: With today's options expiry the
strategy I put in place is continuing to
perform. I rolled 4 Dec 65 naked puts from Dec
out to 3 naked puts to April 65. This has
reduced my exposure by 100 shares and continues
to create more income. I will continue with this
plan into Jan and reduce the number of contracts
further and then commence selling naked puts at
lower strikes, while waiting to see if Clorox
can recover.