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My 4 Basic Rules For Selling Puts (Naked
Or Cash Secured)
Rule #2
- Always Remember Rule #1
Rule
#2 is simple and important - never forget rule
#1
Rule #1 is what gives me confidence
to make enormous profits while others
flee the stock in a selloff or market
collapse. Remember that selling
puts is a strategy of small profits that
compound into big profits, but when I
always stay with Rule #1, I then have
lots of confidence in my stocks.
Therefore, when a collapse occurs or a downtrend
starts, I know that opportunity is coming. Other
investors are fleeing their stocks while I am
benefiting from the higher put premiums as
volatility is rising. To understand volatility you
might want to consider
reading
Understanding The VIX. It is volatility that is
the put sellers greatest friend. When panic ensues
volatility climbs and put premiums rise
dramatically. Suddenly monthly premiums that might
have paid me 1 percent are 4% in a correction or even 8% in
a crash.
It is Rule #2 then that creates enormous profit
potential. These profit potentials are unmatched by
any other type of investment and these profit
potentials can appear every so many years. Therefore
while I am content aiming for 12% a year in my
option selling, I know that by always remembering with Rule #1, I can
make enormous profits while other investors flee in
horror from the collapsing stocks. It is not
uncommon for my portfolios to earn 60% or better in
bear markets. In the last 10 years I have been in
two bear markets and lots of market and stock
corrections. Earnings of 60% twice in those periods
of time have meant I have more than doubled my
entire portfolio.
This is why I have always stayed clear of stocks
such as
Crocs which I discussed in Rule #1 of this
article. While it is true that there is the
potential to earn enormous profits by buying such
stocks as Crocs at the low, it is also equally true
that not only cannot I not guess where the bottom is
in a stock such as Crocs, but also many such
companies end up in disaster and can wipe out a
portfolio that took years to make.
Instead I prefer my strategy of picking companies
that are well diversified, larger than many banks and have
enormous futures ahead of them. Here are a few
examples:
Below is a 2001 stock chart from one of my favorite
stocks, Intel Corporation (INTC). Of particular note is the
2001 price points which are not very far off from where
Intel trades presently. I had been selling puts in
Intel throughout much of 2001. Then in August I had
sold 10 Oct $22 put contracts for .33
cents when the market changed direction.
When the market crashed that September, I
immediately put capital to work in Intel. On
September 19 2001 I sold 10 October $22 puts for
$1.45. That is 6.5% when weeks earlier I had
sold the same strike for just .33 cents.
The following day as panic continued, I sold
10 puts October $22 at $1.95. That is 8.8%. The next day the
market really tumbled and Intel fell to $18.96 and I
sold 10 October $20 puts for a terrific $1.58 or
7.9%. I
then bought 1000 shares of Intel at $19.10.
Total income over the 3 days was - $4980.00. Total
Capital committed to puts over the 3 days was
$64,000.00 - Total return = 7.7%
By October 11 the stock closed at $24.51 and I sold
covered calls on my shares. I sold the November
$22.00 for $2.95.
The puts all expired in October including the puts I had sold in August
for just .33 cents and my shares were
exercised in November.
Total return = Naked Puts Sold During Crash -
$4980.00
Stock Covered Calls -
$2950.00
Stock Exercised -
$2900.00
Total Earnings -
$10,830.00
Total Of Capital Used -
$83,100.00
Total Return From Crash = 13%
Below is the Volatility Index Chart for the
September 2001 period. With the volatility up to
49.00 the put premiums in particularly escalated
throughout the day. This is the type of volatility I
am seeking as a put seller. However in order to
benefit from it, I have to be comfortable with the
stocks I am selling puts against. That's why Rule #2
is so important.
Then just another year later, there
was another crash, which ended up bigger than 2001.
Below are all my trades during the 2002 crash period
in Intel Corporation.
Chart doesn't show October $14 puts
expired.
Total return for this period was Puts Sold and Calls
Sold - $8060.00
Shares Exercised Nov $16 strike - profit -
$2200.00
Maximum Capital Used to November Options Expiry -
$61,600.00 - total profit $10,260.00 = 16.6%
Capital committed after November
options expiry - $33,800.00
Here is the remainder of the trade:
Dec 20 2002 - options expiry - stock closed at
$17.01 - stock was exercised - profit = $3200.00
Jan 16 2003 - options expiry - stock closed at
$16.34 - My Jan $18 strike was not exercised.
I sold covered calls on these shares until I was
finally exercised of them in June at $20.00.
Below is the VIX chart for the same period. You can
see the heightened volatility through the
entire period. This is what worries investors. The
volatility rising creates whipsawing in the markets.
For many investors it is a scary time. But for
option selling it can be a terrific opportunity.
I am showing these trades to demonstrate how opportunity presents
itself, but without Rule #1, then Rule #2 does not work
and I cannot then take advantage of stock collapses
and recoveries.
The Intel trade is also interesting as
you can see how Intel is pretty well trading in the
same range today. So while analysts comment about
how little reward there has been for investors in
stocks like Intel, it is because analysts and
investors do not see the
strategies that are available to take advantage of
the volatility.
Just two more charts to show. Below is Intel for
the past 10 years. Every year there has been
volatility which has created enormous profit
opportunities. Overall the stock is really
not going anywhere. However the key to Intel is that
it is a giant of a company with huge profits but it
is often driven by investor fear. Investors are
always trying to second
guess the technology market and worry that PC sales
may be slipping or Intel may not get into the
handheld market or Intel chips may not be used by
most phones, etc, etc. There are just so many
worries with a stock like Intel. This is why Intel
is a great play on volatility. However it is also
important to remember the peak prices and the
valleys. It is important to try not to sell puts
near the top of the ongoing range in Intel, but to
sell the lower strikes. If the stock moves higher
then I sell further out and still stay with lower
strikes.
Finally to close Rule #2, is this
chart from the collapse of 2008. This is what
opportunity looks like in a large cap, quality
company. This is Bank of Montreal stock (BMO) on the
Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). In the crash of 2008,
this Canadian Bank eventually fell along with most
banks around the world. The difference though is
Bank Of Montreal paid a dividend of $2.80 which
although analysts claimed it would be cut, did not
cut its dividend as did none of the Canadian Banks.
Today Bank Of Montreal stock has recovered to the
$60.00 range and I am earning 10% annual dividend
payments. This would not have been possible without
a market crash and without Rule #2.
Summary Rule #2
Without Rule #2 I cannot have confidence in my
stock choices and my trades. Therefore I could not take advantage of
volatility and as such it would be more difficult to
earn large returns during periods of extreme
volatility. When stocks have a "fire sale" I want to
be able to take advantage of those low prices, but
without Rule #2, it is impossible.