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Read The Disclaimer
My 4 Basic Rules For Selling Puts (Naked
Or Cash Secured)
One of my favorite investments is
selling puts. Whether they be naked puts
or cash secured puts, it doesn't matter
as to me they are the same thing.
Basically I am selling someone the right
to assign (or put) shares to me from a
company at a price that I have agreed
to. Take for example one of my preferred
stocks,
Microsoft.
If I sell a put to another investor at
the Microsoft stock strike of $25.00,
that investor has the right to assign
shares to me at any time up until the
expiry of the option, at $25.00. If
Microsoft was to trade at or below
$25.00 by the time the option expired
and I did not buy back the put or roll
it, then I can be pretty well assured
that the investor will assign or put the
shares to me at $25.00. You have to
remember though that once I sell a put,
I can be assigned AT ANY TIME right up
until the put option expires. Naturally
if the stock stays above $25.00, there
would be no reason for the shares to be
assigned. However if the stock falls
below $25.00 and falls far enough, being
assigned early is quite common.
This article on my 4 basic rules for selling puts
assumes that readers are aware of selling puts as a
strategy and how they function. If you are not, I
would suggest this article
understanding selling
puts and reading
this article on a simple put sell. It gives a
very good understanding of selling puts. If you have
further questions you can check out the related
articles listed at the end of this article and you
can always contact me
if you still have a question or two. Just remember
that I cannot give out
specific trade advice.
Selling a put can be a fabulous strategy if done
properly. While it is a reasonably common strategy
many investors are afraid that the "risk" is too
high. In fact many brokers and those investors
unfamiliar with options, constantly spread this
falsehood simply through sheer ignorance of how
selling puts or selling options in general, works as
an investing strategy.
For those investors with a working knowledge of
options, selling puts is without doubt a very viable
and profitable investment strategy and yes, it is an
investment strategy and not gambling. I suppose a
case could be made that options are gambling in that
by selling a put or call, the investor is "betting"
that the stock will not reach their strike and thus
the sold option will expire worthless and the
investor will keep his premium. But for many who
invest through selling puts, we do so for investment
purposes for a variety of reasons and often are not
only hoping, but actually want the stock to reach
the option strike we have sold so we can either pick
up shares at a lower price than was currently
available, or sell our sales at the covered call
strike sold or buy back the option and roll it
further out for often a great deal more premium. It
is always easy to be negative about strategies we do
not know. Instead I find it very advantageous to
learn all I can and try to apply different
strategies through paper trading to see if I can
profit from a strategy I had never considered
before. Being open minded and willing to learn has a
lot to do with successful investing.
Needless to say, selling puts can be profitable and
highly rewarding if some basic rules are applied. On
the other hand selling puts without a strategy or
plan can be a recipe for disaster. Here are my 4
Basic Rules For Selling Puts.
Rule #1 - Only Sell Puts On Companies I Would
Own
I never sell puts on stocks of companies that I
do not want to own. Why would I? No matter how great
the premiums being offered, if a company is not one
I would like to own there is no point in selling
puts on its stock. I want companies that will
"withstand the test of
time". The choice
NOT to sell puts against
companies I would not
want to own is an
obvious one, when you
consider stocks in
general. Let's look at a few examples to see
why Rule #1 is important.
Below is the 5 year chart on Coca Cola (KO). I have
marked the low for the past 5 years which was on
March 2 2009 at $37.44. Selling puts on Coca Cola
makes a lot of sense. I know from just looking at
the chart that this stock has recovered from
collapses before. Without even looking at the
earnings I can see that this stock has a nice
pattern of recoveries. This means I can safely sell
puts and if I am assigned shares I can sell covered
calls to get out of the stock. If the stock should
fall away from where I sold my puts, I have
confidence to sell more puts to average lower into
the stock and eventually work my way out of the
stock through a combination of selling covered
calls, selling puts and eventually the stock should
recover and my shares will eventually be exercised
away from me. All of this has to be done with a
profit. To realize such profit a stock I have sold
puts against cannot collapse and
never recover. There are a lot of stocks that in
fact do collapse and not recover. Think AIG.
I would definitely sell Coca Cola
puts until this pattern of recoveries no longer
applies. Coca Cola should withstand "the test of
time". In other words it should be still grinding
higher in value and increasing its dividend decades
from now.
Below is the 5 year chart for Bank
Of America (BAC). I have marked the low which was March 2
2009 at $3.00. Just looking at the stock chart
without even worrying about the earnings, gives a
clear indication that this stock would be difficult
to recover from. There has been no recovery to date.
There is a great article called
A Tale Of Two Investors that looks at two
investors who were trapped when Bank Of America
collapsed. It shows what investors with option
knowledge can accomplish through applying their
strategies.
With the stock at all time lows many
investors would consider selling puts for obvious reasons
- the stock is cheap. But just as investors found
with Research In Motion stock, which analysts claimed
was cheap all the way from $150.00 down to $45.00, a
stock like Bank Of America is cheap for a reason.
This is not a stock that meets my Rule #1. I do not
want to own Bank Of America, so why would I sell
puts when there are thousands of stocks to choose
from.
Below is Crocs Inc 5 Year Stock Chart (CROCS). I am sure
everyone knows the story of Crocs. It was at one
time a hot stock. On March 16 2009 it set an all
time new low of $1.00. The problem with selling puts
against a hot stock is that, there is little trend to
follow. When the panic to get out is on, who
knows what strike to sell and will the stock
recover? Crocs does not meet my rule number 1. I
have to ask myself if I had sold puts in Crocs in
2007 at $60.00 would I have confidence that the
company's stock would recover? How would I feel
holding puts at $60.00 when the stock fell to $40.00
almost overnight? When I sell a put that earns me
perhaps $1.50 and the stock collapses and that $1.50
put may cost me $10.00 or more to buy back to close,
it's a pretty sick feeling. At $10.00 to close a
$1.50 put, it is a 566% loss
which is huge. This is the type of stock I cannot
sleep nights with.
Selling puts is a long term
strategy that earns small profits that compound over
time into big profits. Selling puts on Crocs could
wipe out years of earnings. I suppose a case could
be made to sell puts when the stock hit $1.00, but
at that price an investor who believes the stock
will recover, should spend $500.00 and just buy
shares. $500.00 in Crocs, would today be worth
$13,500.00 or 2600% return. These trades always look
good in hindsight, but you have to ask yourself
would you have bought in at $1.00 and held until
today - July 8 2011? For example, I bought into
Citicorp at 1.00 when it crashed, but I sold out
within a few months as it does not meet my investing
strategies and philosophy. I never considered doing
this with Crocs.
Below is Yellow Media Inc, (YLO) 5 year stock chart. This
company trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange or TSX.
I show this because this stock was a darling of the
analysts. With a monthly cash payout of at one time
more than 10%, analysts
praised this stock and as it fell still praised it.
When it reached $5.00 analysts loved it even more.
The news continues to get worse and the company's
once highly touted dividend has already been cut and
is considered no longer viable.
MY YELLOW MEDIA TRADES AND HOW I GOT OUT: At
one time I considered Yellow Media a great stock.
Options were thinly traded but I could earn decent
premiums by going out 6 months at a time. Combining
6 month options with the dividend, I was earning 15%
annually. In 2006 I had been exercised out of my
stock and I sold January 2007 $12.00 puts to get
back into the stock. In January 2007 the option
expired. I then sold 6 months out at $12.00 which
expired but the next 6 months (January 2008) out
were assigned. I then sold a 6 month covered call at
$12.00.
Then in January 2008 the below chart is what the
early warning tools showed me about Yellow Media
Stock. This chart is from my trade records. The notes
on it are from March 1 2008 when I sold my shares
and left the stock behind. I have also left up the
MACD settings in case you wish to try them out.
The
early warning tools
showed me that the lower Bollinger Band was
repeatedly being violated, normally a sign that the
stock is going to fall further. If you look at the
previous break in 2006 you can see that the break
was short lived and the stock quickly recovered back
above the lower bollinger band. Meanwhile though
MACD had been negative since April 2006 which was
almost 2 years, it had now turned decidedly down.
The number of investors selling was growing. I sold
my shares and held onto the calls which were now
naked calls - in other words no stock being held to
cover the calls.
Luckily I sold at a good time. You can see from the above Yellow Media Chart that
the stock has never recovered. This is why it is so
important to only sell shares in companies you would
own. When I was assigned shares in January 2008 I
thought it a reasonable investment based on the cash
payouts which are shown as dividends on the chart.
However the only thing that ever concerned me about
Yellow Media was that this
company is in one area of business only, a bit like
Crocs is. I much prefer a company with a more
diversified base of products. Even Intel and
Microsoft although tech companies, have a wide range
of products to generate profits. This is why picking
the right stocks to sell puts against is so
important, and then watching those stocks using such
an arsenal as the
early warning tools, which has often saved me
from disaster.
Below is General Electric 5 Year
Stock Chart. I have included this stock to discuss
selling puts against companies such as General
Electric. GE is a very diversified company which was
hurt through the 2008 bear market because of its
financial wing of operations. But General Electric
is more than a financial company. Therefore when it
collapsed many put sellers would have considered it
a viable put selling investment. Indeed since 2009
it has had a nice trend for selling puts against.
This is why it is so important for put sellers to
stay with companies they believe have a viable
business model and General Electric certainly falls
within that category. Therefore if a put seller had
been selling puts in 2006, 2007 and 2008 and been
caught in the downturn, they may very well consider
the sell off, as an opportunity to own shares in a large
multinational at extremely low prices. It is all up
to the individual investor as to what they consider
a put opportunity.
Below is Avon Products 5 year stock
chart, which has not
recovered to the highs of 2007 and 2008. Could this
be considered a viable put selling opportunity? If
an investor was keen to eventually own the shares,
Avon Products does exhibit a decent trend even
though it has failed to recover to its 2007 and 2008
highs. It all comes back to the individual
investor's level of comfort. Just as in the case of
General Electric above, if the investor feels that
these companies are great stocks to own if assigned
and believe that through selling covered calls they
can work their way back out of the stock to start
over, companies like Avon Products which show a
general trend that can be traded through selling
puts, definitely could be considered for put selling
strategies.
The last chart I want to discuss is
Wal-Mart Stores. Below is its 5 year chart. Almost
like the Avon Products stock, Wal-mart stock has not
recovered to its 2008 highs, however note how during
the 2008 to 2009 bear market collapse, Wal-mart did
not fall to new lows. It fell, make no doubt about
it, but it did not make new lows for the 5 year
period. This gives a lot of confidence when selling
puts in a stock. For this very reason, Wal-mart is a stock I
would consider selling puts against to eventually
own shares. The trend is comfortable and the company is
so large that should it take a dip it could be
considered an opportunity rather than a reason for
concern.
Summary Rule #1
You can tell from the above charts that Rule #1
can be applied to a variety of stocks. The stock
does not necessarily have to be in a confirmed
uptrend, although that certainly helps. But what I
am looking for, is stocks that if I was assigned, I
would sleep well knowing that they are well managed,
diversified, large caps, that pay me a dividend,
allow me to sell covered calls against my assigned
shares and sell more puts and in a
downturn, I can look at the lower prices as
opportunities to add more shares for the inevitable
recovery.