Stock Market Outlook for Wed Oct 2 2024 – Potential Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Tuesday saw markets fall as the Longshoreman strike got underway and Iran launched almost 200 missiles at Israel. This pushed oil prices higher and made investors more worried about the direction of inflation and interest rates.

The S&P fell 53 points to close at 5708 and well off the day’s low of 5681. Volume was lower than on Monday, coming in at 4.1 billion shares traded. 57% of all stocks were falling although 40% were rising.

The NASDAQ took heavier losses, falling 1.5% for a 278 point loss to close at 17,910, back below 18,000. Volume was 6 billion shares, matching Monday’s volume. 68% of stocks were falling as many tech names gave back some of the recent gains.

The first trading day of October continued the historical tradition of ending lower.

Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Tue Oct 1 2024 to see what to expect for Wed Oct 2 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Oct 1 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and below the Upper Bollinger Band which is still bullish.

The closing candlestick is bearish with a long shadow which usually indicates a bounce is probable for Wednesday.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5625. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5538. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5461 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5235 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average which is bullish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is is turning sideways which is bearish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Wednesday but there are three warnings signals that Wednesday could see further weakness.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Oct 1 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Oct 2 2024 

The technical indicators shifting to strong weakness signals. The MACD up signal is almost gone which means we could see a down signal on Wednesday or Thursday. All the remaining signals are falling. Momentum is rapidly falling and could turn negative shortly.

On Tuesday job openings were higher than estimated, coming in at 8 million, rather than 7.7 million estimated. The Manufacturing PMI was up slightly at 47.3 which surprised most economists. On Wednesday investors get the ADP employment report which is expected to jump to 128,000 from 99,000.

For Wednesday we could see a bounce attempt but the sell-off did not leave the market oversold. Therefore any bounce is suspect that it will not hold. The close is projected to be lower on Wednesday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 Chicago business barometer rose to 46.6 rather than fell as estimated.

1:55 Fed Chair Powell speech touched on nothing new but helped the late afternoon sell-off.

Tuesday:

9:45 S&P Final manufacturing PMI beat estimates coming in at 47.3

10:00 ISM manufacturing surprised coming in unchanged at 47.2%

10:00 Construction spending came in lower than estimated at -0.1%

10:00 Job openings were higher than estimated at 8 million surprising many economists.

During the day – Auto sales were 15.1 million

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment is estimated to rise to 128,000 from 99,000 prior