Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 26 2025 – A Little Weakness But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Tuesday stocks gave back some of the gains from Monday’s massive rally but there was still some strength but selling was more dominant. Investors still remain cautious of the move above the 200 day moving average and that could lead to a retest of the 200 day if investors pullback from buying.

The S&P closed up 9 points to close at 5776 in a choppy day of trading. 54% of stock were declining and 52% of all trades were to the downside.

The NASDAQ closed up 83 points to end the day at 18271. New 52 week lows rose to 164 from 102 yesterday and 57% of all volume was moving lower along with 59% of stocks.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Tue Mar 25 2025 to see how stocks will move on Wed Mar 26 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Mar 25 2025

The index closed above the 200 day and 21 day for a second day. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick has two shadows and closed almost unchanged. This shows indecision from investors and a dip is expected on Wednesday. The candlestick is still bullish but cautionary.

The 21 day moving average is back falling and closed at 5737 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday Mar 13 it fell below the 100 day for a second down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5913 which is bearish but showing the decline is slowing.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5852 which is bearish but showing the decline is slowing.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5702 for a third day which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which may signal a chance the selling is ending. We may see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week and a move higher.

For Wednesday the SPX chart is showing some bullish signs but bearish signals are still dominating.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Mar 25 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 26 2025 

Technical indicators are continuing to turn bullish. The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) technical indicator was stronger again on Tuesday.

The closing candlestick on Tuesday was cautionary but bullish. Investors remain cautious of the rally, especially with the market above the 200 day moving average. Volume and stocks showed more declines than advances on Tuesday which is bearish. A retest of the 200 day could occur and that might end up being bearish.

On Tuesday new homes sales surprised with their strength coming in at 676,000 from 657,000 prior. This shows the house market continues to do defy analysts. Consumer confidence however dipped to 92.9 from 100.1 prior. While still a strong number, there are sign consumers are a bit cautious.

For Wednesday, the outlook is still bullish but weakness, especially in the morning, should be expected. A higher close is anticipated to end the day but volumes need to swing toward advances and more stocks need to climb versus those falling, otherwise the rally won’t have staying power.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 S&P flash services PMI rose more than estimated to 54.3 from 51.0 prior

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI dropped more than estimated to 49.8 from 52.7 prior

Tuesday:

9:00 S&P Case Shiller home price index irose higher than estimated at 4.7% from 4.5% prior

10:00 Consumer confidence dipped to 92.9 from 100.1 prior indicating some concerns from consumers.

10:00 New home sales rose more than estimated to 676,000 from 657,000 prior

Wednesday:

8:30 Durable goods orders are estimated to have dropped -1.0%