Prior Trading Day Summary:
Prior Trading Day Summary:On Tue Mar 18 2025 stocks ended the day lower on fairly light volume. The SPX saw 4.7 billion shares traded, the lowest single day since Feb 19 when 4.6 billion shares were traded. The SPX lost 60 points to close at 5614 but 35% of all stocks were higher by the close.
The NASDAQ lost 304 points but on 6.6 billion shares traded. By the close 33% of all stocks were higher.
Lets review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Tue Mar 18 2025 to see what to expect on Wed Mar 19 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Mar 18 2025
The index closed lower and further below the 200 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick has a short shadow which suggests a bit of weakness in the morning on Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5825 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday Mar 13 it fell below the 100 day for a second down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5933 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5867 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5702 which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which may signal a chance the selling slows..
For Wednesday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish and a bit oversold. A lower open is likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Mar 18 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Feb 21 2025. The down signal was weaker on Tue Mar 18 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is not oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling. A lower close is anticipated. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5585 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 19 2025
Technical indicators are still weak but only a couple are oversold.
The closing candlestick from Tuesday points to a lower open ahead of the FOMC interest rate announcement.
Wednesday will be all about the Fed’s announcement this afternoon. The announcement is made at 2:00 PM and the news conference is at 2:30. If the Fed is hawkish, it could surprise investors who may sell stocks lower. I am expecting no interest rate cut and vagueness when investors can expect another rate cut.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Retail sales rose 0.2% missing estimates of 0.6%
8:30 Retail sales minus autos rose to 0.3% meeting estimates
8:30 Empire state manufacturing surveyplunged to -20.9 missing estimates of -1.8
10:00 Business inventories came in as estimated at 0.3%
10:00 Home builder confidence index fell to 37 from 42 prior
Tuesday:
8:30 Housing starts were a lot higher than expected coming in at 1.50 million
8:30 Building permits didn’t fall as deeply as expected, coming in at 1.46 billion
8:30 Import price index surprised and rose to 0.4%
9:15 Industrial production also surprised, rising 0.7%
9:15 Capacity Utilization was higher than estimated, coming in at 78.2%
Wednesday:
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision
2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference