Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jun 3 2020 – Higher Still

Tuesday saw stocks continue their advance. A morning dip failed to break to 3050 late morning and that seemed to embolden buyers. In the final 45 minutes stocks rose and the S&P closed at the highs for the day.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Jun 2 2020 

One of the important events for Tuesday was the 21 day moving average reaching the 200 day. A move above it will be a major up signal.

The closing candlestick on Tuesday was at the Upper Bollinger Band and is bullish for Wednesday.

Despite the down signals, the up signals have continued to grow since the first up signal on May 1.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling lower and the 50 day moving average is above the Lower Bollinger Band, another bullish signal. The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to rise along with the index.

The S&P closed above the 200 day moving average for the ninth trading day.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jun 2 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum has slipped lower but remains positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tuesday May 19. The up signal was stronger on Tuesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is moving higher.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also rising indicating prices should be higher again on Wednesday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3050 is resistance

3000 is strong resistance

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is light support

2800 is good support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support and marked a drop of 20.4%.

2675 is light resistant

2650 is light support

2625 is light support

2600 is support

2550 is light support

2500 was good support and marked a correction of 26.3%

2344 is the next level of support and marks a 30.9% correction.

2191 was the market low on March 23 and most analysts believe this is the low point we will see.

2100 is light support

2000 is good support and marks a drop of 1393 points for a 41% correction. Some analysts believe the index will fall this low before the bear market ends.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Jun 3 2020 

For Wednesday only one indicator has fallen back, momentum. The other indicators are continuing to signal up with a stronger MACD reading at the close on Tuesday and the Slow Stochastic shifting from a down signal which we saw for yesterday, to an up signal after the close on Tuesday.

Stocks will have dips but the outlook is still higher for the index on Wednesday.

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