Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 24 2024 – Overbought – Dips Likely But Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Tuesday investors saw lower volumes and choppy trading but the a late afternoon rally managed to push the SPX to another new closing high of 4864.

The NASDAQ closed up 65 points to 15,426.

Many investors were waiting for the Netflix (NFLX) latest quarterly earnings along with Texas Instruments (TXN) which would give some idea as to the next round of earnings following the financial earnings.

After hours on Tuesday Netflix reported a miss on earnings but a beat on new subscribers. Texas Instruments missed after hours and lowered their outlook. Both of these could impact Wednesday’s trading.

Let’s review Tue Jan 23 2024 closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Wed Jan 24 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jan 23 2024

The index closed above the Upper Bollinger Band at a new all-time high which is bullish.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is shows the potential for a bullish dip on Wednesday which means stocks could dip a bit deeper than we have seen over the past couple of days. The close though is expected to be bullish.

The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is above the 4400 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is still underway with the Lower Bollinger Band turning lower. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The signal now looks like stocks will move higher out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The S&P chart is bullish for Wednesday but warns there will be dips.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jan 23 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 24 2024 

For Wednesday there is a new but unconfirmed up signal from the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence technical indicators. All other indicators have turned bullish and are pointing higher. The only bearish signal is from the closing candlestick which is advising dips on Wednesday could be a bit deeper than what we have seen over the past couple of trading days.

Netflix saw its stock rise dramatically after hours on Tuesday which Texas Instruments Stock (TXN) fell after hours which pulled down a number of other tech stocks after hours. Both of these may weigh on stocks on Wednesday. One trade that may end up being quite profitable could be in the SMH – VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF if it dips on Wednesday.

On Wednesday investors get the latest S&P flash services and  flash manufacturing PMI numbers. If they rise rather than decline as expected, this could weigh on stocks.

For Wednesday then, expect some dips and trading will be choppier at times. The afternoon though should see a push to close still higher. Indexes though are becoming more overbought each day. Unless volumes improve some down days may be coming soon for stocks.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The main economic reports this week are PMI on Wednesday, durable goods on Thursday and PCE on Friday.

Monday:

10:00 Leading economic indicators were expected to rise slightly to -0.3% but rose to -0.1% showing some strength.

Tuesday:

No economic events

Wednesday:

9:45 S&P flash services PMI is expected to decline to 51.2

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 47.2