Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 15 2025 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Tue Jan 14 2025 stocks once more gyrated between gains and losses. The S&P was as low as 5805 and as high as 5871 before closing up 6 points to 5842. Volume dipped lower on Tuesday with 4.1 billion shares trading hands. On that volume 70% was trading to the upside and 74% of all stocks by the close were rising.

The NASDAQ closed well off its intraday low of 18,926 to end the day down 44 points at 19,044. Volume fell to 7.4 billion with 54% of all volume being traded higher and 57% of all stocks rising.

For Wednesday investors are bracing for bank earnings which start before the markets open with earnings from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon reporting. Any misses could see their stocks tumble.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Tue Jan 14 2025 to see what they can tell us about Wed Jan 15 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jan 14 2025

The index closed below both the 21 day and the 50 day moving averages which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is signaling that Tuesday was another bounce and the signal is clearly showing a bounce could be followed by a down day if bank stocks do not beat estimates.

The 21 day moving average fell back to 5953 which is bearish. It fell below the 50 day moving average Monday which is a down signal.

The 50 day moving average is unchanged for a second day and closed at 5953 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is unchanged for a second day and closed at 5816 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5583 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling further below the 100 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.

The S&P chart is bearish for Wednesday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jan 14 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 15 2025 

Despite better than estimated Producer Price Index numbers on Tuesday, stocks still fell. Today investors get a double whammy of sorts with bank earnings before the open and the consumer price index numbers also before the open.

If bank earnings beat estimates and the outlook is strong for the next quarter, stocks have a good chance of rallying. If bank earnings miss or are mixed, stocks may turn sideways or lower. If the consumer price index numbers are lower than estimates this will help stocks but a lot depends more on the bank earnings than the CPI numbers.

Technical indicators are bearish but a few are showing at or nearing oversold levels and that should help stocks.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

2:00 Monthly US Federal budget rose to -$75 billion

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index rose more than expected to 105.1

8:30 Producer Price Index for Dec fell to 0.2%

8:30 Core PPI surprised by staying at 0.1% and not rising

8:30 PPI year-over-year rose more than estimated to 3.3%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year fell back to 3.3% another surprise

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index is estimated unchanged at 0.3% for December

8:30 CPI year-over-year is expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7%

8:30 Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 3.3%

2:00 Fed’s Beige Book is expected to provide nothing new