Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tue Dec 26 2023 volume on New York was very low at 2.6 billion shares traded. This is the lowest volume this year and lower than last year (2022) for the day after Christmas. On the other hand, volume on the NASDAQ was excellent at 6.3 billion shares traded.
New highs outpaced new lows by a huge margin. On the SPX there were 222 new highs and just 3 new lows. On the NASDAQ there were 385 new highs and 64 new lows.
These stats alone show the Santa Claus Rally is underway for the final week of the year.
For Tuesday the S&P rose 20 points to end the day at 4774. The NASDAQ rose 81 points closing above 15,000 at 15074.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Dec 26 2023 to see what to expect for Wed Dec 27 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Dec 26 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and just below the Upper Bollinger Band. The SPX index made a new 52 week high todayof 4775 and is within easy striking distance of the all-time intraday high of 4818.62 made Jan 4 2022. The all-time closing high was 4796.56 on Jan 3 2022.
The 21 day moving average is rising further, which is also bullish. It has been in a steady rise without even a dip since Nov 22, a full month as of last Friday (Dec 22).
The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday. There is a small shadow on the candlestick indicating there will be some selling on Wednesday.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is at the 50 day moving average.
The S&P chart is bullish heading into Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Dec 26 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Tue Dec 26 2023 the up signal lost strength. It is now down to just 3.28 and a further slip could signal trouble to start 2024.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is positive. It is still overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is entering overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling not much change expected.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is resistance |
| 4750 is resistance |
| 4720 is resistance |
| 4700 is resistance |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 27 2023
Despite the higher close on Tuesday, the technical indicators are a bit more split for Wednesday with a few indicating some trouble to the strength of the rally while the remainder are still signaling higher prices ahead.
Volume should improve today on the S&P but will still be below average for the week. There are no economic or political market moving events on Wednesday which helps the bulls.
Dips should be expected as the index is within a handful of points of the all-time highs in the S&P. Despite this the bulls are still strong enough to push prices higher on Wednesday. Another positive day is expected.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week few with most on Thursday with retail and whole inventories and pending home sales. Bond markets are closed early on Friday.
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index came in at 5% indicating some inflationary pressure on prices
Wednesday:
No events