Stock Market Outlook for Tue Oct 1 2024 – Bullish – Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Monday saw the SPX dip all the way down to 5703 by 2:24 before buyers stepped in and pushed the index up 62 points from the mid-afternoon low to reach 5765 before closing at 5762. Intraday the S&P did not make a new high but came within 2 points of the prior high. The close however was a new closing high.

Volume was good at 4.5 billion shares with 51% of all volume being traded to the downside. It was the last hour and a half where investors turned back to the upside. By the close 48% of all volume was moving higher.

The NASDAQ saw the best volume since Sep 20, with 6 billion shares trading. 45% of all volume was to the downside but 54% was to the upside. Advance decliners for stocks was equal at 48% each. The day was back and forth by the close was higher by 69 points to 18,189.  The NASDAQ is now just 473 points from the all-time high of 18,671.

Aside from the first week of September when the S&P lost 240 points and the NASDAQ tumbled 1022, both indexes end the month of September with further gains. The S&P was up 114 points for a 2% gain. The NASDAQ rose 476 points gaining 2.6% for the month.

For the first day of October, let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Mon Sep 30 2024 to see what to expect for Tue Oct 1 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Sep 30 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and just below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.

The closing candlestick has one shadow which indicates overbought which signals some dips are expected to start the month.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5622. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5535. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5456 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5230 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average which is bullish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday with just the closing candlestick once again advising be prepared for overbought dips.

SPX- Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 30 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Oct 1 2024 

The technical indicators are still weakening for Tuesday. The late afternoon rally on Monday did nothing to change the weakness in the MACD indicator. As well the Slow Stochastic is now neutral as it sits as extremely overbought readings. Momentum is still falling. This is the fourth straight day of declining momentum.

Despite this, the signals still advise there is room to the upside on Tuesday to start October. October has a very checkered past and signals can change quickly. To start the month though, signals advise that any dips are opportunities to setup trades as the overall index is still moving higher.

On Tuesday the Job openings could impact stocks if the estimate of 7.7 million is not met. Auto sales during the day are expected to be volatile. As well the Longshoremen strike slated to start Tuesday could impact the market, especially the open depending on how nervous investors are that the strike could impact inflation and economic output.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 Chicago business barometer rose to 46.6 rather than fell as estimated.

1:55 Fed Chair Powell speech touched on nothing new but helped the late afternoon sell-off.

Tuesday:

9:45 S&P Final manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 47.0

10:00 ISM manufacturing is estimated to rise slightly to 47.5% from 47.2%

10:00 Construction spending is estimated to be flat at 0.0% after being lower at -0.3% prior

10:00 Job openings are estimated to be unchanged at 7.7 million

During the day – Auto sales are estimated at 15 million