Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 1 2022 – Volatile But Still Bullish

The final day of February was better than the futures early in the day had predicted. All three indexes did dip during the day and at times, deeply. However some investors were still buying the dips and that kept the indexes from breaking lower.

During the day the S&P and NASDAQ turned positive. The NASDAQ was positive through half the morning trading and once again into the close.

The end of the day saw the S&P down just 10 points closing at 4373.

The NASDAQ rose 56 points on Monday to close at 13,751.40.

Let’s review the technical indicators from Monday’s close to see what we should expect for the start of March on Tuesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Feb 28 2022 

The S&P chart actually had a fairly strong day with dips throughout the day finding ready buyers. While investors remain cautious some stocks are low enough to be compelling buys and that held the market up on Monday.

The closing candlestick on Monday indicates a potential stronger day for Tuesday. We could see the S&P challenge the 200 day moving average.

The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways while the Lower Bollinger Band is turning up. This is a bullish sign at present.

The 21 day moving average has stopped falling and the 100 day moving average is starting to turn up as well. The 50 day is still turning lower which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is still holding the 4400 level which is also bullish.

There are no new up signals in the chart but you can see from the observations above that more bullish signals are building.

The SPX chart is still quite bearish but Monday’s action was encouraging, especially in the face of the many issues stocks are currently butting against.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Feb 28 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is negative and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a confirmed down signal on Thursday Feb 17 2022 last week. On Mon Feb 28 2022 the down signal was again cut in half. The MACD histogram is showing strength to the upside is continuing to build.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising again.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a stronger up signal in place and is moving higher out of oversold signals.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling back.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and is at the best it has been since January 11.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4500 is resistance

4490 is light resistance

4475 is light resistance

4450 is light support

4400 is good support and the 200 day moving average

4370 is light support

4350 is light support

4300 is good support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

4150 is good support

4000 is good support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Mar 1 2022 

There will be continued volatility on Tuesday and the S&P may dip back to 4350 to 4325 but it has a good chance to close at or above the 200 day moving average on Tuesday. The technical indicators are signaling strength is building for the bulls.

Signals are still advising caution. Investors should only risk capital they can afford to tie up in a stock for weeks to perhaps several months, if the index decides to pullback once again this week.

For Tuesday however the outlook is for the index to climb higher and push aside sellers who are sitting just below the 200 day moving average.  Volatility will increase but the outlook remains bullish for the indexes, with a greater chance of the SPX index closing higher. That means in dips on Tuesday I will be buying SPY calls, just as was done on Monday’s dips.

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