Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 16 2024 – Dips Likely But Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Monday stocks continued their advance although as the day wore on the rally faded.

The S&P closed up 15 points to 5631 while the NASDAQ rose 74 points to close at 18472. The Dow Jones Index rose to a new record high of 40,211.

There were other stocks making news including Apple Stock which closed at a new record high of 234.40, Berkshire Hathaway Stock (BRK.B) closed at a new high of 430, Eli Lilly Stock (LLY) rose to 950.79 while Bank Of America Stock (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase Stock (JPM) both closed at new 52 week highs ahead of earnings which will be released Tuesday before the open.

On Monday my region of the country was hit by heavy thunderstorms resulting in flooding and power loss. I was unable to post trades and articles shortly after the noon hour. With only limited power this evening the articles for Tuesday are reduced.

Let review the technical indicators from Mon Jul 15 2024 to see what to expect on Tue Jul 16 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jul 15 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band. Intraday the index was trading above the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.

The closing candlestick indicates the index faced selling through much of the day which resulted in a long shadow at the close. Often this signals further selling and dips should be expected for Tuesday but the outlook remains bullish.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 5005 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5246.

The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average which is bullish but note in the chart that the Lower Bollinger Band is slipping and could move below the 50 day moving average this week. That would be bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is climbing which is bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday although the candlestick is advising some caution and the Lower Bollinger Band slipping is a bit of a concern.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jul 15 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 16 2024 

For Tuesday the technical indicators are still bullish but there are some signs we could see a dip or two today and a couple of the technical indicators are advising that a lower close is a possibility. If the index does close lower, the overall outlook is still bullish.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to be unchanged at -6.0

12:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks.

Tuesday:

8:30 Retail sales are exited to clip -0.4%

8:30 Retail sales minus autos is expected to rise to 0.1%

8:30 Import price index is expect to rise to -0.2% from -0.4%

10:00 Business inventories is expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.3%

10:00 Home builder confidence is anticipated at 44, up from 43 prior