Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday with long-term Treasury yields slipping and oil prices falling, investors plowed money back into stocks that had been beaten down over the past week of selling.
The SPX regained 66 points to close at 4763 up 1.4% on the day. The index is now just 30 points below its 52 week high.
The NASDAQ rose 319 points for an impressive 2.2% gain to close at 14843, 307 points below the 52 week high of 15,150.
It was an impressive start to the second week of January following a dismal first week.
The question now is whether the second week will see new 52 week highs.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jan 8 2024
The index closed above the 21 day and below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is rising which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band has moved above the 50 day moving average and with the Upper Bollinger Band dipping lower, a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is starting. The squeeze could see stocks move higher.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday following Monday’s huge bounce.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and just positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jan 2. The down signal lost strength on Monday.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative. It is on the verge of turning positive.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising sharply and positive. It is close to signaling overbought.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling stocks should move higher on Tuesday.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4815 is resistance |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is resistance |
| 4750 is resistance |
| 4720 is resistance |
| 4700 is resistance |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 9 2024
Monday’s huge rally has moved the trend back to up. On Tuesday the morning could see some weakness or dips but the technical indicators have switched back to “up” and any dips on Tuesday are opportunities to setup trades. On Monday, consumer credit stunned when released at 3:00 PM as it came in at $23.7 billion, well above expectations of $8 billion. The market dipped slightly and hesitated but quickly found support despite the huge number and continued to rise. This is bullish for stocks even though an increase that high can be seen as inflationary.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The main economic reports this week are on Thursday when we get the CPI numbers and Friday when the latest PPI numbers are released.
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit was expected at $8 billion but came in at a stunning $23.7 billion which could be construed as inflationary
Tuesday:
8:30 Trade deficit is expected to come in at -$64.7 billion