Prior Trading Day Summary:
Prior Trading Day Summary:On Monday stocks opened lower but all 3 indexes managed to close the day higher.
The SPX fell below the 100 day moving average in the morning but managed to find buyers to help push the index back above the 100 day moving average. The SPX rose 9 points to end the day at 5836 on 4.5 billion shares traded. 47% of all volume though was trading lower and 43% of all stocks were falling.
The NASDAQ closed up 84 points at 19047 on 8 billion shares traded but with 311 new 52 week lows and 57% of volume being traded lower.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Mon Jan 13 2025 to see what they can tell us about Tue Jan 14 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jan 13 2025
The index closed below both the 21 day and the 50 day moving averages but closed back above the 100 day moving average. This remains bearish.
The closing candlestick is signaling a second bounce could be likely for Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average fell back to 5955 which is bearish. It fell below the 50 day moving average today which is a down signal.
The 50 day moving average is unchanged for a second day and closed at 5952 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is unchanged for a second day and closed at 5815 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5581 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling further below the 100 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.
The S&P chart is almost all bearish for Tuesday except the closing candlestick indicates a second bounce could happen on Tuesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jan 13 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative. It is at oversold readings.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tuesday Dec 10 2024 . The down signal gained strength on Monday but is near readings that often see a bounce.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged but actually trending more sideways than either clearly up or down since Dec 24.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place to start the week.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling but not signaling oversold yet.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling Tuesday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5780 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 14 2025
The technical indicators are still bearish but there are signals advising that a second bounce could be attempted today. A dip down to the 100 day intraday is likely, probably in the morning.
Today we get the latest Producer Price Index numbers which could help stocks if they are in-line with estimates. If they show more strength, we could see stocks move back lower.
Tomorrow we start into bank quarterly earnings. It won’t be surprising to see the day end higher as investors anticipate strong earnings from the banks.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
2:00 Monthly US Federal budget rose to -$75 billion
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index is estimated to slip to 100.5 from 101.7 which is still very good
8:30 Producer Price Index for Dec is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%
8:30 Core PPI is estimated to climb to 0.3% from 0.1% prior
8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated at 3%
8:30 Core PPI year-over-year is estimated to remain unchanged at 3.5%
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book is released but not expected to contain anything new