Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2019 – New Highs But Weaker

Monday saw the S&P make a new all-time high reaching 2949.52, just 48 cents from 2950. The index dropped back 6 points in the final 40 minutes of trading to close at 2943.03 but it was an exciting day for investors.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Apr 29 2019 

The S&P closed above the 21 day moving average again on Monday and at the Upper Bollinger Band. Note though that the candlestick for Tuesday is negative.

As well note that the Lower Bollinger Band has moved above the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is turning down as well. A new Bollinger Bands Squeeze seems likely which could be the pullback or dip for May which so many analysts are waiting for.

All major moving averages are moving ahead with the 50 day and 100 day both moving away from the 200 day.

The S&P is stronger but it continues to see a lot of sideways action and low volume. Both of these keep the rally very suspect.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Apr 29 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling, as it is not impressed with the market action at present.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tuesday April 2. The signal was neutral again on Monday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place and is overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is sideways.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2950 is resistance

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Apr 30 2019 

For Tuesday the index looks set to see a dip down to perhaps 2935 or even 2930. It will take some time for the S&P to break above 2950. Instead normally an index will waver and keep retesting a new high and then either push higher or dip back lower.

The rally higher from the Dec 24 low has been stunning but it is now ahead of itself. That does not mean the market will give back the gains. It does mean the new high will see a lot of investors take profits and wait to see what catalyst can be found to push the index higher.

Normally a dip is needed to make stocks “attractive” again and we could see that by mid-May.

For Tuesday though, it looks like weakness will be hanging around for most of the day. We will see a dip back to 2935 or even 2930 and then another attempt to close at least to 2945. We could see that happen but we now going to see a lot of choppiness and more sideways action. New highs could still happen, but dips will become more likely.

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