Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 5 2024 – Second Bounce Attempt – Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday stocks attempted a rebound and managed to climb to 5553 before tumbling back to 5503. The close was lower by just 9 points to 5520.

The NASDAQ slipped 52 points to end the day at 17,084.

Volume was lower for both indexes as investors wait for Thursday’s Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims report and more important, Friday’s August Non-farm Payroll Report.

The Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday offered nothing new for investors, which was expected.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Sep 4 2024 to see what the signals advise for Thu Sep 5 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Sep 4 2024

The index closed at the 50 day moving average which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish but with a longer shadow than on Tuesday, indicating a second bounce attempt is likely for stocks.

The 21 day moving average is turning higher and finally at the 50 day moving average. On Thursday it should move above the 50 day which would be an up signal.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed only slightly higher at 5506. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5376 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5151 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and turning up which is bearish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is turned lower. This is bearish.

The S&P chart is still more bullish than bearish but they are still too many bearish signals heading into Thursday..

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Sep 4 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 5 2024 

For Thursday the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims which are out before the open will probably set the tone for market movement at least to start the day.

Meanwhile the technical indicators are broadly negative although the Rate Of Change is not and is signaling a higher day for Thursday. The closing candlestick on Wednesday also points to a second bounce attempt.

For Thursday stocks could try for a second bounce ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll report for August. A positive close is a strong possibility.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

Holiday

Tuesday:

9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was expected to come in at 48 but came in at 47.9

10:00 Construction spending was estimated to rise to -0.1% but stayed at -0.3% which is why housing sector fell on Tuesday

10:00 ISM manufacturing was expected to rise to 47.9% from 46.8% but rose to 47.2%. Anything below 50 is considered contraction in the economy

Wednesday:

8:30 Trade deficit was expected at -79.1 billion but came in at -78.8 billion

10:00 Job openings were expected to come in at 8.1 million but came in lower at 7.7 million

10:00 Factory orders came in higher, as estimated at 5%

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Thursday:

8:15 ADP Employment is expected to rise to 140,000 from 122,000

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims  are expected to drop to 225,000

8:30 Productivity is estimated to rise to 2.5%

8:30 Unit-labor costs are expected to dip to 0.8% from 0.9%

9:45 Final services PMI is estimated at 55.1

10:00 ISM services is estimated to slip to 51.0% from 51.4%