Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 31 2024 – Weakness – Dips Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday the SPX traded positive for much of the day but as the afternoon wound down, the index slipped and ended the day down 19 points at 5813. Volume was down 100 million shares to 3.9 billion. New highs jumped to 126 while new lows were 38. Despite the lower close 50% of all volume was traded to the upside.

The NASDAQ made another new intraday high reaching 18,785 but the index slipped lower into the close, down 104 points to end the day at 18,607. Volume was lower by 400 million shares from Tuesday’s trading but at 6.7 billion shares on Wednesday, it was still a high volume day. New lows continue to creep higher and reached 113 versus 158 new highs, but 58% of all stocks were falling, thanks to the semiconductor stocks in particular, which were falling today.

Earnings after hours from Microsoft and META among other stocks came in at decent numbers but investors turned to selling as the evening drew to a close. Thursday may start with some selling.

Let’s review the technical indicators from Wed Oct 30 2024 to see if a higher close is possible for Thu Oct 31 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Oct 30 2024

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and just above the 21 day moving average. It closed at the low of the day which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday with a shadow (head) signaling that a bounce probably won’t hold and a lower day should be expected.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5800. This is bullish but the rise in the 21 day is slowing.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5696 This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5579 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5342 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned sideways which is still bullish but if the index slips lower on Thursday the Upper Bollinger Band may turn lower which would be bearish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish but there are a couple of signals advising the a negative close could happen on Thursday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Oct 30 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 31 2024 

Economic indicators were a surprise on Wednesday with the ADP number more the double the estimates, GDP lower but pending home sales jumping over 7%. The economic signals were mixed enough that some investors were alarmed that the economy may be slowing while other investors felt the numbers showed the economy may be picking up. To try to better understand the economy investors turned to companies reporting their quarterly results on Wednesday but the information was again mixed. With earnings from companies like Microsoft, META, Carvana, Roku, Etsy, Starbucks, DoorDash and more, released Wedneday, investors received a mixed picture. Tomorrow (Friday) we get the October Non-Farm Payroll Report which could move markets up or down. Today we get the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims at 8:30 and a slew of economic reports that often can affect market direction as well.

There is still weakness in the technical indicators and none are advising that a large move higher is in the works presently. I am expecting a sideways day with weakness as investors prepare for tomorrow’s employment report.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No economic reports

Tuesday:

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index fell to 5.2%

10:00 Consumer confidence rose to 108.7, well beyond estimates

10:00 Job openings came in lower than expected at 7.44 million

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment was estimated to fall to 113,000 but came in at a surprising 233,000

8:30 GDP was expected to rise to 3.1% but fell to 2.8%

10:00 Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.7% but jumped 7.4%

Thursday:

8:30 Personal income is expected to rise slightly 0.3%

8:30 Personal spending is expected to rise 0.4% from 0.2%

8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is estimated at 0.2%

8:30 PCE year-over-year is estimated lower at 2.1%

8:30 Core PCE Index is estimated to rise slightly to 0.3%

8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated to slip to 2.6% from 2.7%

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expect to rise to 230,000

9:45 Chicago PMI is estimated at 46.8% from 46.6%