Prior Trading Day Summary:
Wednesday was a choppy day with the SPX 5700 level tested several times. The Index managed to close just above it, up less than a point at 5709. 52% of all stocks were declining on Wednesday.
The NASDAQ moved higher 14 points to close at 17,925 but declining stocks made up 50% of those traded.
Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Wed Oct 2 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Oct 3 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Oct 2 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and well below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish with shadows which signal a bounce could still happen on Thursday although somewhat unlikely ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll report.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5634. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5541. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5466 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5239 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and turning up. This is bearish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is is turning sideways which is bearish.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday but there are three warnings signals advising weakness is evident.
SPX Stock Market Outlook of Wed Oct 2 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive for a sixth day.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Sep 13 2024. The up signal was almost gone on Wednesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is trending more sideways than up or down.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which advises Thursday could see a change, possibly to up by the close.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5765 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5740 is resistance |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is resistance |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 3 2024
The technical indicators are continuing to lose strength. The MACD indicator’s up signal is almost gone. A down signal could occur by Thursday’s close.
For Thursday we should see more choppy trading with weakness continuing along with dips. As the September non-farm payroll report is out on Friday morning at 8:30, normally we can expect lower trading volumes today and a close perhaps slightly lower while investors wait for Friday’s numbers.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 Chicago business barometer rose to 46.6 rather than fell as estimated.
1:55 Fed Chair Powell speech touched on nothing new but helped the late afternoon sell-off.
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P Final manufacturing PMI beat estimates coming in at 47.3
10:00 ISM manufacturing surprised coming in unchanged at 47.2%
10:00 Construction spending came in lower than estimated at -0.1%
10:00 Job openings were higher than estimated at 8 million surprising many economists.
During the day – Auto sales were 15.1 million
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment was well above estimates coming in at 143,000
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise slightly to 220,000 from 218,000
9:45 S&P final services PMI is estimated unchanged at 55.4
10:00 ISM services are expected to rise slightly to 51.8% from 51.5%
10:00 Factory orders are estimated unchanged at 0.00% – flat