Prior Trading Day Summary:
Wednesday saw indexes continue their advance. By the close the SPX was up 41 points to 5792 for another record close. Trading volume also rose by 300 million shares to 3.7 billion with 55% of all stocks advancing.
The NASDAQ rose 108 points to close at 18,291. Volume fell back by 400 million shares traded to 5.3 billion. Stocks were not as decisive as on the SPX. 49% of all stocks were rising while 47% were falling.
On Thursday before the open investors get the latest Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims. Friday we get the start of the latest quarterly earnings of financial stocks.
Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Wed Oct 9 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Oct 10 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Oct 9 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is indicating some stocks may be overbought but there is still room for stocks to move higher.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5695. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5571. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5492 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5263 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is starting and at present stocks look to move higher out of the latest squeeze.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday with just the closing candlestick indicating some stocks are overbought.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Oct 9 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and back positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Oct 3 2024. On Wednesday the down signal is pretty well gone. We should get an unconfirmed up signal on Thursday at the close.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It could finally move above reading of 66 today by the close.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has aa up signal in place and is near overbought readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is risingand nearing overbought readings.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which signals we could see a higher close today.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5790 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5765 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5740 is resistance |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5680 is resistance |
| 5650 is support |
| 5625 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5575 is support |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 10 2024
For Thursday, some stocks are starting to become overbought. We could see some weakness in the morning but the outlook remains bullish. Financial stocks begin to report on Friday before the open. Many financial stocks already saw prices their stock prices rise on Wednesday. We could see a further advance in financial stocks today.
On Thursday before the open investors get the latest initial jobless claims which are expected to rise slightly to 230,000. More important are the CPI numbers. I am not expecting either of these to impact the direction higher for stocks.
The close will be higher, probably just above or at 5800. I am not expecting a third strong rally today ahead of tomorrow’s financial earnings being reported.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit was much lower than expected at $8.9 billion versus $13.2 billion estimated and $26.6 billion prior.
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index rose slightly to 91.5
8:30 Trade deficit rose to -70.4 billion from – $70.8 billion
Wednesday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories decline slightly to 0.1%
2:00 Minutes of Fed’s September FOMC meeting
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 230,000
8:30 Consumer price index is estimated to dip to 0.1%
8:30 Core CPI is estimated to drop to 0.2%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is estimated to drop to 2.3%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated to remain unchanged at 3.2%