Wed Nov 13 2019 saw the indexes open lower and climb higher again.
The S&P fell to just below 3080 at the open on Wednesday and then move back higher as the morning progressed, thanks in large part to Disney which climbed 7.3% to close at $148.72. The close was fairly flat with the S&P up just 2 points to 3094.
After the close on Wednesday Cisco earnings disappointed and that dropped the stock.
On Thursday before markets open, investors get earnings from Walmart which could impact the indexes.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Nov 13 2019
The SPX chart is bullish except for the closing candlestick which is bearish again for Thursday.
3030 is light support.
All the major moving averages are climbing including the 50 and 21 day moving averages. The 21 day moving average is still rising above the 3030 level which is bullish. The 50 day is above the 3000 level which is also bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band has moved above the 100 day moving average which is bullish.
The two buy signals from September are still in place.
Overall the chart remains bullish but you can clearly see the index is back turning sideways each day.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Nov 13 2019
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and moving sideways.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Oct 15 2019. The up signal was weaker again on Wednesday but still present.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and sideways.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is extremely overbought and has a down signal in place.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is overbought and moving sideways.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling back which indicates prices may begin to slip unless the index can rally higher.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
3100 is resistance
3030 in light support
3000 is support
2960 is light support
2950 was light support
2900 is light support
2860 is light support
2840 is support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Nov 14 2019
The technical indicators are still losing momentum and those that were pointing up are now primarily pointing sideways, meaning little change is expected. We have a down signal from the Slow Stochastic as of the close on Wednesday.
The index is still seeking a catalyst to push it above 3100. The candlestick for Thursday is also bearish.
Testimony from Powell did not disrupt stocks. His testimony continues on Thursday.
The outlook is unchanged for Thursday at sideways, unless earnings from Walmart stock before markets open, beats by a wide margin. That would push the indexes to open higher. An earnings miss, especially a large earnings miss, could set the market up for a drop back to 3080 or 3075.
Overall then, the outlook is still sideways but with a slight bias to the upside.
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