Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 25 2020 – Lower

Wednesday saw investors reacting to a jump in COVID19 cases as well as repositioning of portfolios by investors including fund managers. With stocks up considerably from the March lows, investors are taking profits which looks set to continue Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Jun 24 2020 

The index closed below the 21 day moving average, leaving behind a bearish candlestick for Thursday. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving lower as the index is unable to climb higher. As well you can see that the Lower Bollinger Band is moving higher once again and is above the 200, 100 and 50 day moving averages, which will be bearish and set the index up for another Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

There are 4 up signals in place and the 50 day moving average moved above the 200 and 100 day moving averages today which is another up signal.

Overall the index is more bullish than bearish but the inability to push higher since June 8 has been quite negative for the index.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 24 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling further and negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Friday June 12. The down signal was stronger on Wednesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3200 is resistance

3150 is resistance

3050 is support

3000 is support

2975 is light support

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is light support

2800 is good support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support and marked a drop of 20.4%.

2675 is light resistant

2650 is light support

2625 is light support

2600 is support

2550 is light support

2500 was good support and marked a correction of 26.3%

2344 is the next level of support and marks a 30.9% correction.

2191 was the market low on March 23

2100 is light support

2000 is good support and marks a drop of 1393 points for a 41% correction. Some analysts still believe the index will fall this low in the second half of 2020.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jun 25 2020 

For Thursday the technical indicators are all pointing to a lower day.

There is always a chance for a bounce but on Thursday any bounce won’t hold. The index will break below 3000 on Thursday.

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