Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 16 2022 – Bounce Likely

Wednesday was all about the Fed and the three quarter point interest rate increase. With investors split on half a point versus three quarter point rate increase, the reaction took some time after 2:00 PM for stocks to rally higher.

By the close investors were of the opinion that the Fed had acted properly and they were back buying stocks.

The S&P ended the day up 54 points to close at 3789.99 and the NASDAQ rose 2.5% for a 270 point gain and a close at 11,099.16.

Let’s review Wednesday’s closing technical indicators to see if the rally can continue into Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Jun 15 2022 

On Wednesday the closing candlestick is pointing to a bearish bounce. The close is also below the 21 day moving average for the fifth day which is bearish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is climbing higher and the Lower Bollinger Band is falling. Usually this indicates a bounce should be expected.

Any bounce though has to recover above 4100 if it is to turn into a rally and not just a bounce. That is unlikely which is why the outlook remains lower after the bounce ends.

The 200, 100 and 50 and 21 day moving averages are all falling lower and the 200 day is leading the market lower. This is bearish. The 21 day is ready to fall below 4000 which is bearish.

There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April. The Fed decision to increase the funds rate three-quarters of a point may be enough to push the index higher on Thursday but the S&P chart is extremely bearish. Any bounce on Thursday the S&P chart is advising will not last.

The chart is 85% bearish for Thursday but a bounce is expected.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 15 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Monday June13. On Wednesday the down signal remained very strong. The MACD histogram is also very negative.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising but negative. It is oversold.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is oversold. It is ready to move higher.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and oversold.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4200 is light resistance

4150 is light resistance

4100 is light resistance

4050 is light resistance

4025 is light resistance

4000 is strong resistance

3975 is light support and is a decline of 17.5%

3900 is good support and is a decline of 19%

3850 is good support and is a decline of 20%

3825 is light support

3800 is good support.

3775 is light support

3750 is light support

3730 is light support

3700 is good support

3675 is light support

3650 is light support

3625 is light support

3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jun 16 2022 

For Thursday the Fed’s interest rate hike may be enough to bounce the market. The technical indicators and the closing candlestick on Wednesday all point to a potential bounce.

The morning open may be higher and then see a dip but the start of the noon hour should see the S&P higher. The afternoon will see some selling but a positive close is likely.

With this interest rate hike over and the next one not until July, investors and analysts will probably begin to focus on expectations for a recession. That will probably be the next catalyst to push stocks to move lower. This could start as soon as Friday. For Thursday though, I am taking profits on positions and raising capital for the next dip lower. If inflation signals begin to slow or even fall over the next several weeks, the indexes will rally, so keep that in mind.

For Thursday the technical indicators are quite negative but are trying to turn higher. That should be enough to support the expected bounce, at least for much of Thursday.

Potential Market Moving Events

On Thursday we get the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims and housing starts. These may help swing the market higher depending on the numbers.

Wednesday:

8:30 Retail sales were lower by negative 0.3% which was below forecasts of 1%.

8:30 Empire State manufacturing index was minus 1.2 slightly below forecasts.

10:00 NAHB home builder index was 67, in-line with expectations and not signaling a large slow-down.

10:00 Business Inventories were 1.2%, half of the prior 2.4% but not negative.

2:00 FOMC statement – rate is 1.5% to 1.75%.

2:00 Fed Chair Powell news conference

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

8:30 Housing Starts

8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

Friday:

10:00 Leading economic indicators

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 26 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 26 2024 review the rally on Tuesday and the outlook for the so-called Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Apple Stock (AAPL) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed Members.   ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 26 2024 – Continuing To Run Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw a low volume half day. Normally a half day favors the bulls and Tuesday definitely proved this point. The SPX rose 66 points to end the day at 6040. The past three trading days recovered Wednesday's market plunge. The NASDAQ rose 266 points to ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 24 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 24 2024 review the bounce on Monday as well as Tuesday's half day of trading and what to expect for Thursday and possibly Friday. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE),  UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD) ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 24 2024 – Weakness With Possible Dip But Still Bias Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw investors try to resume the bounce from Friday. The day started with a dip which was expected. The dip brought in buyers and the rally restarted. By the close the SPX had climbed 43 points. For the past two days the index has recovered ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 23 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 23 2024 review the bounce on Friday along with the outlook for the shortened Christmas Week of trading. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU), FedEx Stock (FDX). Micron Technology Stock (MU), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 23 2024 – Possible Dip But Still Bullish and Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw a second bounce in equities following Wednesday's collapse after the Fed's news conference made it clear the Fed may scale back interest rate cuts in 2025 to 2 from an expected 4. Friday's bounce was stronger into the lunch hour and lost momentum as ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 20 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 20 2024 review the failed rally attempt on Thursday and what investors should expect into the end of the week. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), FedEx Stock (FDX). Micron Technology Stock (MU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 20 2024 – Potential Second Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw a weak bounce attempt which saw the opening high of 5935 within a couple of minutes and from there the index spent the day drifting lower. Every rally higher ran into sellers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were both lower, having given ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 19 2024 review Wednesday's massive sell-off. Stocks discussed include Home Depot Stock (HD), SMH ETF, VIX ETF, Nike Stock (NKE), FedEx Stock (FDX) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed Members.   Members can read ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 19 2024 – Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw stocks collapse following hawkish comments from the Fed Chair Powell who indicated 2025 may see just two rate cuts rather than the anticipated 4 rate cuts. As well some investors and analysts felt his comments left open the possibility of having to raise rates ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 18 2024 review the day's outlook and expectations following the Fed's latest interest rate decision. Stocks discussed include SMH ETF, Broadcom Stock (AVGO), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed Members.   ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 18 2024 – All About The Fed

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday was another choppy day which ended with all 3 indexes lower. The S&P closed down 23 points to 6050 which wiped out yesterday's gain. Volume rose to 4.7 billion but new 52 week lows were well ahead of new highs with 163 new lows and ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 17 2024 review the day's outlook and outline one trade in particular being done today. Stocks discussed include SMH ETF, Adobe Stock (ADBE) , Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Costco Stock (COST) , Best Buy Stock (BBY) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 17 2024 – Bullish Ahead Of The FED

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday was a choppy day on the markets with Dow Jones Index falling yet again but the SPX and NASDAQ both managed to end the day positive. The S&P closed up 23 points to 6074. The NASDAQ closed up 247 points to 20173.89, a new all-time ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 16 2024 review the outlook for the third week of December. Stocks discussed include Adobe Stock (ADBE) , Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Costco Stock (COST) , Best Buy Stock (BBY) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 16 2024 – Choppy – Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw the SPX end the day flat closing where it opened at 6051. Intraday the index slipped to 6036 and moved as high as 6078. Volume was low at 3.7 billion shares but more stocks were falling at 66% versus 32% rising. There were 113 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 13 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 13 2024  review the outlook following Thursday's sell-off. Stocks discussed include Adobe Stock (ADBE) , MongoDB Stock (MDB), Nordson Corp Stock (NDSN), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Apple Stock (AAPL), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Costco Stock (COST) and more. The morning Investing ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 13 2024 – Confirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: Fresh on the heels of Wednesday's rally came the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) number which was higher than estimated, coming in at 0.4% rather than the anticipated 0.2%. Core Producer Price Index came in lower at 0.1% versus 0.2% estimated. Year-over-year the PPI number was ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 12 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 12 2024 review the outlook following Wednesday's bounce. Stocks discussed include GE Vernova Stock (GEV), MongoDB Stock (MDB), Tesla Stock (TSLA), Nordson Corp Stock (NDSN), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Apple Stock (AAPL), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Adobe Stock (ADBE) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 12 2024 – Bullish Bounce

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw investors react with a bullish bounce off the CPI numbers that were in-line with expectations. Most investors now feel that the 2.7% CPI number will low the Fed to cut interest rates again this month. The SPX ended the day up 49 points closing ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 312
• ›