Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 30 2025 – Higher Open But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday stocks faced a choppy day with a number of dips including during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The SPX had a wide range with a intraday low of 6013 and high of 6062. This 49 point swing intraday helped to push the VIX Index higher reaching 18.08 before closing at 16.56. The FOMC left rates unchanged and gave little indication of any upcoming rate cuts. Instead Fed Chair Powell seemed to indicate they were perhaps more concerned about inflation not pulling back further. Many investors waited the day out as they wanted to see earnings from some of the biggest companies on Wall Street including Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, IBM and others.

The SPX closed down 28 points to 6039. The NASDAQ closed down 101 points to 19,632.

After hours earnings from Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, IBM, Las Vegas Sands were mixed wi the some like META and IBM beating estimates and seeing their stocks climb while Microsoft and Tesla reported misses.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Jan 29 2025 to see what to expect for Thu Jan 30 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jan 29 2025

The index closed above the 50 and 21 day moving averages. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick has a long shadow once again, which signals a dip is likely on Thursday but a higher close is expected.

The 21 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5963 which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed unchanged at 5984 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5856 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5627 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bullish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.

For Thursday the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish though the closing candlestick warns dips are likely Thursday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 29 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 30 2025 

For Thursday the morning open could see a bounce following earnings from many companies after hours on Wednesday. Microsoft however could end up being a drag as could Tesla although after hours they both changed direction and moved higher after initially selling lower.

The Fed’s comments on inflation had many investors nervous after the press conference. If oil prices move lower this will help inflation but the Fed seemed unlikely to cut interest rates currently.

For Thursday the morning may be positive but as the day wears on selling pressure may push stocks into a few dips. The chance of a higher close on Thursday is not as likely as a lower close.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 New home sales for December rose to 698,000 beyond all estimates.

Tuesday:

8:30 Durable goods orders were lower than estimated coming in at -2.2%

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index rose as estimated to 4.3% from 4.2%

10:00 Consumer confidence fell to 104.1 from 109.5 prior.

Wednesday:

8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods was estimated at -$103.5 billion but stunned coming in at $122.1 billion which many analysts felt could be inflationary.

8:30 Advanced retail inventories came in as estimated at 0.3%

8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories were lower than estimated at -0.5% -0.2%

2:00 FOMC interest rate decision

2:30 Fed Chair Powell press conference

Thursday:

8:30 GDP is expected to slip to 2.5% from 3.1% prior

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to climb to 228,000

10:00 Pending home sales are estimated to drop to 0.3%