Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday investors pushed the SPX through 4900 before running into sellers who dropped the market back to 4868. While just a 4 point advance for Wednesday it still was another new closing high.
The NASDAQ rose 56 points to close to 15482.
Netflix soared $52 for a 10.7% gain on Wednesday. The stock closed at $544.87. This helped stocks in general rise.
However services PMI and manufacturing PMI were both higher than estimated and this weighed on some investors who now think the Fed won’t cut rates until June or even October. That also weighed on some investors.
Let’s review Wed Jan 24 2024 closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Thu Jan 25 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jan 24 2024
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band at a new all-time high which is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has turned bearish after Wednesday’s rally above 4900 was lost and the index closed up just shy of 4 points on the day, giving back the entire rally. The closing candlestick is signaling a lower day for Thursday.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is above the 4400 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is still underway with the Lower Bollinger Band turning lower. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The signal now looks like stocks will move higher out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The S&P chart is bullish for Thursday but the closing candlestick is bearish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 24 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Jan 23 2024. On Wed Jan 24 2024 the up signal was confirmed.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is overbought.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has aa down signal in place and is overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling a lower day is likely for Thursday.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4925 is resistance |
| 4915 is resistance |
| 4900 is resistance |
| 4875 is resistance |
| 4850 is resistance |
| 4825 is resistance |
| 4815 is resistance |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is resistance |
| 4750 is support |
| 4720 is support |
| 4700 is support |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 25 2024
For Thursday the technical indicators are split with some pointing higher for today but most pointing to a high probability of a lower day.
On Thursday investors get the latest GDP. If that number if higher than 3%, stocks could pullback.
The closing candlestick for Thursday is also bearish and is signaling that the rally is on the verge of stalling for a day or more. For Thursday expect dips and a lower close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The main economic reports this week are PMI on Wednesday, GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday.
Monday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators were expected to rise slightly to -0.3% but rose to -0.1% showing some strength.
Tuesday:
No economic events
Wednesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is expected to decline to 51.2 but rose to 52.9
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 47.2 but rose to 50.3
Thursday:
8:30 4th Quarter GDP is expected at 2.0%
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 200,000
8:30 Durable goods orders are expected at 1.5%
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods is estimated at -$90 Billion
8:30 Advanced retail sales are estimated at -0.2%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories is estimated at -2.0%
10:00 New home sales is estimated at 649,000 up from 590,000