Prior Trading Day Summary:
Wednesday saw another positive day and the SPX moved above the 6100 intraday, for the first time in history. The index closed at 6086.37, a new closing high. Volume dipped by 400 million shares to 4.4 billion. New highs were 134 and new lows just 25. Up volume though was just 33% despite the index closing higher. 64% of all stocks were falling on Wednesday.
The NASDAQ closed up 252 points to end the day above 20,000. Volume fell by 900 million shares to 7.4 billion. 56% of all volume was to the upside but 56% of all stocks on the NASDAQ were falling.
The index is showing signs of being overbought. On Wednesday we saw more stocks falling than rising despite the indexes closing higher. That is a sign of an overbought market.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Jan 22 2025 to see what to expect for Thu Jan 23 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jan 22 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages and at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a long shadow (head) which signals bullishness but advises that Thursday could see a dip and even a chance of a negative close as stocks are overbought.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5940 which is bullish. The 21 day is moving higher and should cross back above the 50 day which will end the only down signal in the chart.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5976 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5834 hich is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5604 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling slightly which is bullish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band has turned back up which is bullish.
For Thursday, the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but the closing candlestick is signaling that stocks are overbought and the index should dip.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 22 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 17 2025. The up signal was stronger on Wed Jan 22 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling Thursday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5780 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 23 2025
For Thu Jan 23 2025 stocks are overbought and the technical signals are advising that stocks may take a breather on Thursday or Friday.
There is a chance of a flat to slightly lower close on Thursday, but the overall outlook is still strongly bullish.
On Thursday we get the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims at 8:30. Estimates are for a slight rise to 221,000 but if the number is a lot higher or a lot lower, stocks could dip to start the day or in the morning.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Martin Luther King Jr Day
Tuesday:
No event scheduled
Wednesday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators were -0.1% versus 0.3% prior
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise to 221,000 from 217,000 prior