Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday everything fell into place as the oversold market staged a strong rally as bond yields dipped on the back of slightly weaker core CPI numbers and exceptional earnings from the first round of bank earnings, released before the open on Monday. By the close markets had laid to rest the recent weakness in the markets.
The SPX closed up 107 points to end the day at 5950, which was support and turned to resistance last week. Volume was 4.6 billion. New highs jumped 3.5 times versus new lows. 82% of all volume was advancing and 84% of all stocks were surging higher. This was the best day for the SPX since Nov 6 and one of the strongest days in weeks.
The NASDAQ climbed 466 points, ending the day at 19511. Volume rose 100 million to 7.5 billion shares traded. New highs rose to 78 and new lows fell to 89. 76% of all volume was advancing and 75% of all stocks were rising. It was also the strongest rally since Nov 6.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Jan 15 2025 to see where stocks will head on Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jan 15 2025
The index rallied above the 100 day moving average and reached the 50 day and moved above the 21 day. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is signaling that Wednesday morning could see some profit-taking but the day will end still higher.
The 21 day moving average fell back to 5939 which is bearish. It fell below the 50 day moving average Monday which is a down signal.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5958 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5819 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5587 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is neutral.. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.
The rally has pressured the moving averages back to recommence climbing which is bullish. The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 15 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tuesday Dec 10 2024 . The down signal lost a lot of strength to the downside on Wed Jan 15 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising sharply and looks set to break out of the primarily sideways trend it has been in since Dec 24..
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place is bouncing off oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and bouncing off oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising sharply and signaling Thursday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5780 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 16 2025
For Thursday, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) released their latest quarterly earnings after midnight ET. Revenue soared 38.8% and net income jumped 57%. The strength of the earnings will drag semiconductor stocks higher on Thursday.
Further bank earnings are released on Thursday along with earnings from UnitedHealth Group (UNH). If they beat estimates such as we saw on Wednesday, stocks will move higher again. There could be some profit-taking on Thursday morning but any dips will find ready buyers as many investors sat out the rally on Wednesday but will now want to get into stocks, especially if stocks continue to climb Thursday morning.
Technical indicators have switched right around to the bullish side after Wednesday’s massive rally. Thursday will end higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
2:00 Monthly US Federal budget rose to -$75 billion
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index rose more than expected to 105.1
8:30 Producer Price Index for Dec fell to 0.2%
8:30 Core PPI surprised by staying at 0.1% and not rising
8:30 PPI year-over-year rose more than estimated to 3.3%
8:30 Core PPI year-over-year fell back to 3.3% another surprise
Wednesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index rose to 0.4% from 0.3%
8:30 CPI year-over-year rose as estimated to 2.9% from 2.7%
8:30 Core CPI slipped to 0.2% from 0.3% prior
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year slipped to 3.2% from 3.3% prior
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book was not a concern
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 210,000 from 201,000 prior
8:30 Retail sales are expected to dip to 0.5% from 0.7% prior
8:30 Import price index is estimated to dip to -0.3% from 0.1% prior
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is estimated to rise to -6.0 from -16.4 prior
10:00 Business inventories are estimated unchanged at 0.1%
10:00 Home Builder confidence index is estimated to slip to 45 from 46 prior