Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 14 2022 – Slight Bias Up Ahead Of Long Weekend

Wednesday saw a second attempt at a rally. This one held into the close with the S&P up 49 points to close at 4446 and the NASDAQ up 272 points to close at 13,643.

Let’s review Wednesday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Thu Apr 14 2022, the final trading day before the long weekend.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Apr 13 2022 

On Wednesday the 21 day continues to move higher.

Meanwhile the Bollinger Bands are into a squeeze which could end with the index moving lower or higher but we won’t know until next week.

The closing candlestick on Wednesday is bullish for Thursday.

The 200 day moving average is rising above the 4400 level which is bullish. The 50 day moving average has still not climbed back above the 100 day and the 100 day is still moving sideways.

The chart is about 50% bearish and 50% bullish for Thursday so the market could move either way.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 13 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal Friday April 8. On Wednesday the down signal weakened The histogram is still strongly negative.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place and is oversold. It looks ready to turn back up.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating investors should not expect large price moves on Thursday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4650 is resistance

4640 is resistance

4625 is resistance

4600 is strong resistance

4590 is resistance

4575 is light resistance

4560 is light resistance

4550 is light support

4525 is light support

4500 is support

4490 is light support

4475 is light support

4450 is light support

4400 is support

4370 is light support

4350 is light support.

4300 is good support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Apr 14 2022 

For Thursday the technical indicators are primarily rising indicating a good chance for another up day.

The closing candlestick bullish.

Normally before a long weekend, investors should expect lower volume and based on the technical indicators, a slight bias to the upside.

At the close on Wednesday I did not buy any SPY options up or down. I am not expecting a large move up or down on Thursday and will not enter a new SPY Market Direction trade.

Potential Market Moving Events

Thursday:

8:30 Initial Jobless claims and continuing jobless claims

8:30 Retail sales

10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

10:00 University of Michigan inflation expectations

10:00 Business Inventories

3:50 Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks

6:00 Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks

Friday: (markets are closed)

8:30 Empire state manufacturing index

9:15 Industrial production index

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