Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday investors took some profits and repositioned trades which resulted in a choppy day with dips and spikes and an eventual lower close. After setting new all-time highs in the SPX and Dow Jones Indexes late in the week, it was not unusual for Friday to see profit-taking. As well Friday was triple witching which meant much higher than usual volumes. The NASDAQ saw 10.4 billion shares traded but just a loss of 63 points to end the week at 17,948. Over the past two weeks the NASDAQ has recovered 1257 points, wiping out the losses from the start of September.
The SPX traded 8.2 billion shares surpassing the 8.1 billion shares traded on March 15 which was also triple witching. Friday was also the highest volume day this year. This is not uncommon with the SPX sitting at an all-time high as it headed into triple witching. The SPX lost just 11 points to end the day at 5702.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Sep 20 2024 to see what to expect on Mon Sep 23 2024 for the start of the final full week of September.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Sep 20 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a long shadow (tail) which indicates the index pushed sellers back and closed near the highs of the day. Almost always the next day will start lower, dip and then climb or start higher and then dip only to climb again.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5585. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5518. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5421 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5199 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day moving average and falling which is bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bullish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ending with stocks moving higher.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for the start of the week.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Sep 20 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Sep 13 2024. The up signal was stronger on Friday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic changed to an up signal but is at overbought levels.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is at overbought levels.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling Monday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is resistance |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 23 2024
On Monday the day will start with most stocks overbought. The closing candlestick is advising either a weak opening followed by a dip and then a spike higher or an opening that is higher, followed by a dip and then a rebound. In either case the index is set to rebound.
The day also started with the latest services and manufacturing PMI and 3 Fed Presidents are speaking. Bostic at 9:00, Goolsbee at 10:15 and Kashkari to 1:00. They will be “selling” the half point rate cut so the market will be bullish.
The technical indicators meanwhile are a bit mixed but the Slow Stochastic changed from down to up although still showing overbought for the start of the week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also switched but this time from up to down and it also signals overbought. The day should close higher however but even if it closes lower, the bullish sentiment remains strongly entrenched as we head into the end of September. Aside from the first week of the month in which analysts thought the markets would move a lot lower in September, this month has been good for the bulls. While many analysts felt that even a half point rate cut was “baked” into the market, the move higher on Thursday showed it was not as “baked in” as many analysts had thought. Investors remain enthused about stocks despite all the warnings and negative talk from dozens of analysts. They have been warning for almost two years that stocks are set to fall. Eventually they will be right but so far they have been proven to be on the wrong side of where profits are being made.
If the PMI numbers come in near estimates, the bulls will be supported for a higher close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is expected to slip slightly to 55.4 from 55.7 prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 48.4 from 47.9 prior