Stock Market Outlook for Mon Oct 7 2024 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Friday saw stocks move higher on the back of strong employment numbers with September reporting 254,000 jobs created versus 150,000 expected. Hourly wages rose to 4.0% year-over-year and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%. Rather than being seen as inflationary, investors looked at the numbers as a sign of no recession on the horizon. Trading volumes however were a bit light on the day as obviously not everyone believed the rally on Friday. Nonetheless it was a strong day for stocks and turned the indexes positive on the week.

The S&P closed up 51 points to 5751 on 3.5 billion shares traded with 62% of all stocks rising. For the week the index squeaked out a 13 points gain for a 4th straight week of positive gains.

The NASDAQ closed up 219 points on 5.2 billion shares, the lowest volume traded on the week. 66% of all stocks were rising which was the best showing since September 19. For the week the index managed an 18 point gain to close at 18,138. It also marked a fourth straight week of gains.

This week we see some big earnings as a number of major companies report. Thsee earnings will give us a bit of cross section on the economic outlook to date. These include PepsiCo (PEP) , Helen of Troy (HELE) , Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Fastenal (FAST). Then Friday morning starts financial earnings with JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) all reporting their latest quarterly results. The week promises to be a bit choppy at times and we could see some large swings in a few of the companies reporting earnings. The week however will be highly profitable for trades.

Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Fri Oct 4 2024 to see what to expect for Mon Oct 7 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Oct 4 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and well below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bullish but with a long shadow which usually indicate morning weakness on Monday. However the weakness will probably see buyers show up who missed Friday’s rally.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5654. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5553. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5476 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5249 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and turning up. This is bearish but if it moves above the 100 day it will become bullish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is is turning up which is bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday with just 2 bearish signals to watch, the closing candlestick long shadow and the Lower Bollinger Band.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Oct 4 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Oct 7 2024 

The technical indicators regain a lot of strength after Friday’s big up day but many are still showing a chance the rally is more a bounce. The MACD indicator did not confirm the latest down signal and the Slow Stochastic is still signaling lower although it could turn back to up if Monday closes higher.

Overall the technical indicators are showing the morning could be weak but the close should be higher. If there is a dip on Monday we should see buyers return who missed Friday’s rally. That could mean dips may be shallow and might not last long.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

3:00 Consumer credit is expected to fall to $12.0 billion from $25.5 billion prior