Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 7 2022 – Mixed Outlook And Bearish

Another rough day on the markets on Friday, but again investors pushed back at sellers into the close and ended the day well off the lows.

The S&P closed down 34 points at 4328 but intraday it broke below 4300 and reached 4285 almost as low as we saw on Tuesday when the S&P fell to 4279.

The NASDAQ fell 224 points for a 1.6% loss which was far worse than what we saw on the S&P. It closed at 13313.44 and remains below all three major moving averages.

By the close of trading on Friday, the technical signals had changed from Thursday’s close when a move higher seemed likely.

Let’s review the SPX close on Friday to see what investors should expect for market direction on Monday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Mar 4 2022 

On Friday the SPX pulled back and failed to regain the 200 day moving average. The closing candlestick however is bullish but almost everything now depends on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We saw this on Friday with news Thursday night of Russian shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the southern city of Enerhodar, Ukraine. The chance of a nuclear disaster sent shocks waves which pressured the stock markets lower to start the day on Friday. For now it is obvious that investors are remaining focused on what is occurring in Ukraine. Many investors are worried the war will expand into NATO countries.

The Upper Bollinger Band is falling further and the Lower Bollinger Band is simply drifting lower. We should see another Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week and at present the squeeze looks set to send the index lower.

Of prime importance is the further dropping of the 21 day moving average which is now set to fall below the 200 day on Monday to set up a third major down signal for the index.  This will be followed by the 50 day falling below the 100 day. That will be another very bearish signal.

All the major moving averages are falling lower with the 200 day still holding the 4400 level.

The chart remains very negative but as we saw on Thursday, it won’t take much to see a bounce back if the war reaches a resolution and the fighting stops. Even a temporary ceasefire will assist. At present any ceasefire seems like a long way off.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 4 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is negative and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wednesday March 2. On Friday March 4, the signal was weaker. The MACD histogram is flat but still positive.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and falling for a second straight day.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling lower.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4500 is resistance

4490 is light resistance

4475 is light resistance

4450 is light resistance

4400 is good support and the 200 day moving average

4370 is light support

4350 is light support

4300 is good support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

4150 is good support

4000 is good support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon March 7 2022

The technical indicators are mixed but even though there are some underlying bullish charts, the bears are in control on Monday. A bounce could easily be seen but the chance any bounce on Monday can hold is slim without a positive change in the war.

The February non-farm payroll numbers were excellent and beat estimates. That did assist the markets on Friday and stopped them from falling lower at the open, as well as intraday. But those numbers alone cannot get the market back rising. On Monday the focus again will be on the Russia-Ukraine war. That means a lower open is probable. Bounces are likely but the close should be flat to lower.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025 review Tuesday's volatile day of trading along with the outlook for Wednesday's trading. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Bank Of America ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 15 2025 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Jan 14 2025 stocks once more gyrated between gains and losses. The S&P was as low as 5805 and as high as 5871 before closing up 6 points to 5842. Volume dipped lower on Tuesday with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025 review Monday's market action which ended with a slight gain. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Citigroup Stock (C), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Goldman Sachs Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 14 2025 – Second Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks opened lower but all 3 indexes managed to close the day higher. The SPX fell below the 100 day moving average in the morning but managed to find buyers to help push the index back ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025 review Friday's sell-off, the outlook for today and the week. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Walt Disney (DIS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Citigroup Stock (C) ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 13 2025 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors sold stocks lower following a stronger than anticipated December jobs report which showed over 100,000 more jobs created than estimated. Many investors looked at the jobs numbers as possibility inflationary and a reason for the ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025 review Wednesday's market action and the outlook for Friday. Stocks discussed include Delta Air Lines Stock (DAL), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Constellation Brands Stock (STZ), Apple Stock (AAPL) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 10 2025 – All About The December Employment Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks traded between losses and gains but by the close the SPX was up 9 points to 5918. Intraday the index slipped to a low of 5874 which was not as low as Jan 2or Dec ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off and discuss the outlook and when we may see another rally attempt. Stocks discussed include Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 8 2025 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the day ended as expected. Monday's close pointed to a bounce attempt to start the day and then more selling and a lower close. The close though was lower than I had expected. The problem with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025 review Monday's rally and the afternoon selling which saw the SPX drop 43 points from the intraday high. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Apple ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 7 2025 – Morning Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday I had expected a bit of a dip in the morning and then a push higher. Instead the SPX opened above 5990, raced to 6020 and then fell back to close below the morning open at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025 review Friday's strong rally and discusses the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Apple Stock (AAPL), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX), SPY ETF and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 6 2025 – Morning Dip Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks finally bounced on good volume to end the week on a positive note. The S&P closed up 74 points for the best one day gain since Nov 6. Volume jumped to 3.8 billion shares with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025 review Thursday's selling and comments on the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 3 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: The first trading day of 2025 saw the day start with a bounce but then the SPX fall to the lows last seen on Dec 20 before some buying managed to push the index up to close just ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off. As well the notes discuss what 2025 may hold for investors if there is no Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Tesla Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 2 2025 – Bounce Likely But Bye Bye Santa

Prior Trading Day Summary: The final day of 2024, Tuesday Dec 31, saw more profit-taking and lower closes. The S&P closed down 25 points. As a minimum the Santa Claus Rally needs to gain at least 1% over the close on Monday ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024 review Monday's sell-off and the question of whether there is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Johnson and Johnson Stock (JNJ), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 31 2024 – Possible Bounce But Santa May Be Gone

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw further selling on New York and the NASDAQ. By the end of the day the S&P had lost 64 points to close at 5906. The NASDAQ closed down 235 points closing at 19486. The Santa Claus ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 313
• ›