Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 31 2025 – Bounce Attempt Likely But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Fri Mar 28 2025 stocks plunged lower without any large rally attempt. This lead to more selling which saw the index close near the day’s low.

The SPX lost 112 points and ended the week down 86 points, closing at 5580. 77% of all stocks were falling on the SPX on Friday.

The NASDAQ had its worst day since Mar 10, falling 481 points with 78% of all stocks falling. The index closed at 17,323, down 461 points for the final week of March.

March was terrible for most stocks with the NASDAQ losing 1524 points in the month, down 8% in March. The SPX lost 373 points in March for a drop of 6.2%.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Fri Mar 28 2025 to see if stocks might try a bounce on Monday, although that appears rather unlikely.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Mar 28 2025

The index closed back below the 200 day moving average but above the low from March 13. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick suggests further downside is likely on Monday although a bounce should be expected at some point either Monday or Tuesday. This is bearish.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5700 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7/ It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5900 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5841 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5700 which is bearish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bearish and signals more downside is ahead. The Upper Bollinger Band is tfalling below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. A chance of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is unlikely , at least for the first few days of April.

For Monday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish although it is signaling a small chance of a bounce.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 28 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 31 2025 

The technical indicators are continuing to gain strength to the bearish side. Only the MACD indicator is still positive but it lost a lost of strength on Friday. The 21 day is now below the 200 day for a third down signal. Tuesday is what the President has labeled Liberation Day. If investors are lucky, perhaps a bounce later in the week could assist stocks but for now, the outlook remains bearish and lower.

Luckily on Monday there is only one economic report and usually the Chicago business barometer does not move markets. The bulls may be a bit lucky on Monday but the day will end lower.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 Chicago business barometer is expected to decline to 43.6 from 45.5