Stock Market Outlook for Mon Feb 14 2022 – Cautious and Lower

Friday saw no real bounce in the morning but stocks held the 4500 support level until late morning. Then stocks drifted lower through the lunch hour until news hit the markets that indicated Russia would invade Ukraine probably by Wednesday of this week.  Stocks fell rapidly and sell volume picked up as the index fell lower. It closed at the 200 day moving average, 4419, down 85 points for a loss of 1.9%.

The NASDAQ fell 394 points to end the day at 13,791, down 2.7% on large volume.

With war now appearing likely markets will probably have a touch week ahead for the third week of February.

Let’s review Friday’s closing numbers to learn what investors should expect for Monday Feb 14.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Feb 11 2022 

The closing candlestick on Friday is bearish. The day saw the index collapse through the 21 day moving average early in the day and by the close end up at the 200 day moving average. This is bearish.

The 21 day moving average is back falling.

The Upper Bollinger Band is still falling sharply which is quite bearish and you can see the Lower Bollinger Band is rising. The original outlook for this Bollinger Bands Squeeze was to send the index to 4400. But the index ended Friday at 4418 which means the Bollinger Bands Squeeze will be sending the index lower. A move down to 4200 on the S&P this week, if war erupts is a possibility based on the Bollinger Bands Squeeze that appears ready to form up later this week.

The 50 and 100 day moving averages are falling which is bearish however the 200 day moving average is back rising which is bullish.

The chart has two down signals in place and the index could generate a third down signal later this week. The chart is very bearish.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Feb 11 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and just turned negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a confirmed up signal on Friday Feb 4. On Friday the up signal lost half of its strength. The MACD histogram is trending lower.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and plenty of room to fall. This is bearish.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply for a second day. This is bearish.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling for a second day indicating lower prices are ahead.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4800 is resistance

4725 is resistance

4700 is resistance

4670 is resistance

4655 is resistance

4600 is resistance

4550 is light support

4525 is light support

4500 is good support

4490 is light support

4475 is light support

4450 is medium support

4400 is good support and the 200 day moving average

4370 is light support

4350 is light support

4300 is good support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Feb 14 2022 

As expressed in the Stock Market Outlook for the past two weeks, an invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be a catalyst for stocks to move lower. This event, combined with worries over the prospects of rising interest rates will be enough to push stocks lower for what now appears to be most of the week.

As indicated in Friday’s stock market outlook I purchased SPY put options in the Market Direction Portfolio early morning and will be holding them through Monday. It will take news of Russia backing away from an invasion to bounce stocks. With that appearing to be unlikely, the week will be poor for stocks. I will be adding in more SPY put options on Monday morning to Friday’s position. Other ideas for Monday will be in the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Monday Feb 14.

For Monday expect a down day and stay cautious for the week as the index looks positioned to fall further, thanks to Russia’s probable invasion. If there is a bounce on Monday which would be unlikely, I will be buying more SPY put options to hold for much of this week.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 20 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 20 2024 review the failed rally attempt on Thursday and what investors should expect into the end of the week. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), FedEx Stock (FDX). Micron Technology Stock (MU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 20 2024 – Potential Second Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw a weak bounce attempt which saw the opening high of 5935 within a couple of minutes and from there the index spent the day drifting lower. Every rally higher ran into sellers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were both lower, having given ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 19 2024 review Wednesday's massive sell-off. Stocks discussed include Home Depot Stock (HD), SMH ETF, VIX ETF, Nike Stock (NKE), FedEx Stock (FDX) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed Members.   Members can read ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 19 2024 – Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw stocks collapse following hawkish comments from the Fed Chair Powell who indicated 2025 may see just two rate cuts rather than the anticipated 4 rate cuts. As well some investors and analysts felt his comments left open the possibility of having to raise rates ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 18 2024 review the day's outlook and expectations following the Fed's latest interest rate decision. Stocks discussed include SMH ETF, Broadcom Stock (AVGO), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed Members.   ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 18 2024 – All About The Fed

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday was another choppy day which ended with all 3 indexes lower. The S&P closed down 23 points to 6050 which wiped out yesterday's gain. Volume rose to 4.7 billion but new 52 week lows were well ahead of new highs with 163 new lows and ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 17 2024 review the day's outlook and outline one trade in particular being done today. Stocks discussed include SMH ETF, Adobe Stock (ADBE) , Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Costco Stock (COST) , Best Buy Stock (BBY) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 17 2024 – Bullish Ahead Of The FED

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday was a choppy day on the markets with Dow Jones Index falling yet again but the SPX and NASDAQ both managed to end the day positive. The S&P closed up 23 points to 6074. The NASDAQ closed up 247 points to 20173.89, a new all-time ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 16 2024 review the outlook for the third week of December. Stocks discussed include Adobe Stock (ADBE) , Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Costco Stock (COST) , Best Buy Stock (BBY) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 16 2024 – Choppy – Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw the SPX end the day flat closing where it opened at 6051. Intraday the index slipped to 6036 and moved as high as 6078. Volume was low at 3.7 billion shares but more stocks were falling at 66% versus 32% rising. There were 113 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 13 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 13 2024  review the outlook following Thursday's sell-off. Stocks discussed include Adobe Stock (ADBE) , MongoDB Stock (MDB), Nordson Corp Stock (NDSN), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Apple Stock (AAPL), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Costco Stock (COST) and more. The morning Investing ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 13 2024 – Confirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: Fresh on the heels of Wednesday's rally came the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) number which was higher than estimated, coming in at 0.4% rather than the anticipated 0.2%. Core Producer Price Index came in lower at 0.1% versus 0.2% estimated. Year-over-year the PPI number was ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 12 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 12 2024 review the outlook following Wednesday's bounce. Stocks discussed include GE Vernova Stock (GEV), MongoDB Stock (MDB), Tesla Stock (TSLA), Nordson Corp Stock (NDSN), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Apple Stock (AAPL), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Adobe Stock (ADBE) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 12 2024 – Bullish Bounce

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw investors react with a bullish bounce off the CPI numbers that were in-line with expectations. Most investors now feel that the 2.7% CPI number will low the Fed to cut interest rates again this month. The SPX ended the day up 49 points closing ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 11 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 11 2024 review the outlook for Wed Dec 11 2024 plus the remainder of the week. Stocks discussed include GE Healthcare Tech Stock (GEHC), MongoDB Stock (MDB), Tesla Stock (TSLA), Apple Stock (AAPL), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Adobe Stock (ADBE) ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 11 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw investors continue to take profits. While the index slipped just 18 points, many stocks fell much deeper. The SPX ended the day lower, closing at 6035. Trading volume fell by 500 million shares to 4.2 billion with 66% of all volume to the downside ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 10 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 10 2024 review the outlook for Tue Dec 10 2024. Stocks discussed include the SPY ETF, Oracle Stock (ORCL), MongoDB Stock (MDB), Macys Stock (M), GameStop Stock (GME) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed Members. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 10 2024 – Bounce Attempt But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw investors take profits which was not unexpected considering last week's rally and a high number of stocks sitting at 52 week highs. The SPX ended the day down 37 points to close at 6052. Volume rose to 4.7 billion shares but 54% of all ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 9 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 9 2024 review the outlook for the start of the second week of December. Stocks discussed include the SPY ETF, Oracle Stock (ORCL), C3AI Stock (AI), MongoDB Stock (MDB) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 9 2024 – Choppy – Dips Likely But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw an unemployment report that continued to show job growth and more people looking for work, both of which are good signs for the economy. The SPX ended the day up 15 points and for the week, up 58 points, almost as many points as ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 312
• ›