Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 23 2024 – Possible Dip But Still Bullish and Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Friday saw a second bounce in equities following Wednesday’s collapse after the Fed’s news conference made it clear the Fed may scale back interest rate cuts in 2025 to 2 from an expected 4. Friday’s bounce was stronger into the lunch hour and lost momentum as the afternoon progressed. Still, it managed to close up 64 points to end the day at 5930.

The NASDAQ rose 200 points to end the day at 19,572.

Volumes rose on the indexes. The SPX saw 8.9 billion shares traded, the highest volume of 2024. 82% of the volume was being traded to the upside with 73% of all stocks climbing. The NASDAQ had 11.6 billion shares traded, the second highest volume day of 2024. 79% of the volume was traded higher. 66% of all stocks were rising.

It was obvious on Friday that investors were jumping back into stocks that had been beaten done on Wednesday and Thursday, expecting a Santa Claus Rally to start this week. They are probably right.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Fri Dec 20 2024 to see what to expect Mon Dec 23 2024 to start the final week of December.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 20 2024

The index closed at the 50 day moving average and below the 21 day. This is  bearish but with a bullish bias.

The closing candlestick is signaling Friday was a bounce but a bullish one. A dip is likely for Monday but a higher close is signaled by the closing candlestick.

The 21 day moving average is lower at 6017. This is unchanged from Thursday. his is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5927. The higher move is just 3 points and signals the plunge has turned the outlook bearish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5783. The higher move is just 3 points and signals the plunge has turned the outlook bearish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5532 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day and turning sideways which is bearish but also signals a move higher could be coming. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned sideways which is neutral.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Monday but still shows strength for a potential move higher.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 20 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 23 2024 

The bounce on Friday lost momentum as the afternoon progressed which is normal as it was the end of the week and a lot of investors hate to hold positions over a weekend, especially after the plunge on Wednesday. Despite this, Friday’s bounce was widespread and encompassed the majority of stocks on both New York and the NASDAQ.

On Monday we get consumer confidence which shouldn’t affect market direction.

The technical indicators are signaling that Monday will see a dip or dips but the day will end higher for the indexes. This sets the market up for a short day on Tuesday, Christmas Eve when markets close at 1:00 PM. Tuesday will be a low volume day that tends to be bullish. Wednesday, Christmas Day markets are closed. Thursday and Friday are regular days and I expect the Santa Claus Rally will get under way on Thursday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 113.0 from 111.7 prior