Prior Trading Day Summary:
The half day on Friday saw low volumes, which was expected and usual for a half day, but the close was strong with indexes gaining. The S&P made another new all-time high closing up 33 points to end the day at 6032. The NASDAQ rose 157 points closing at 19218.
The S&P saw 2.5 billion shares traded with 59% of al volume to advancing. 65% of all stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ saw 4.1 billion shares traded with 77% of al volume to the upside and 63% of al stocks rising.
For the week, the S&P rose 63 points while the NASDAQ was up 214 points.
The month of November was excellent for both indexes with the S&P up 5.7% and the NASDAQ up an impressive 6.2%.
For December we may not see these types of gains as November’s gains were on the unusual side.
Let review the closing technical signals from Fri Nov 29 2024 to see what to expect for Mon Dec 2 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Nov 29 2024
The index pushed to its highest level of the year. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a small shadow which could mean the start of December will see some profit-taking.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5919. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5838. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5698 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5452 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average and turning up which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The S&P chart is bullish for Monday with a chance some profit-taking may occur which would be natural after the impressive November gains.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 29 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Nov 25 2024. The up signal was stronger on Friday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and no longer overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which signals Monday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is rsistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is support |
| 5825 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 2 2024
Historically the first day of December has ended lower 43% of the time since I have kept records. This is not unusual as November has tended to be strong over the past many years. The most recent November was especially strong and that often means some profit-taking at the start of December.
The technical indicators are showing the rally is still underway and has more room to run.
There is a good chance for dips or even a negative close but the technical indicators are still showing higher for Monday’s close. Friday we get the November non-farm payroll report. The week is expected to be primarily positive heading into that report.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is estimated unchanged at 48.8
10:00 ISM manufacturing is estimated to rise to 47.5% from 46.5%
10:00 Construction seconding is estimated to rise slightly to 0.2% from 0.1%