Stock Market Outlook for Mar 9 2020 – Still Down

The futures for Monday’s open are pointing to a large decline of 145 points on the S&P and 410 on the NASDAQ to begin the day. Most of these is the result of an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia where no one will probably end up a winner. Add in the latest coronavirus fears and the chance of a recession is probably now much higher which will lead to even more pessimism on the market’s outlook. The futures may bounce before Monday’s open, but investors should be prepared for another rough day and tough week.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Mar 6 2020 

The SPX chart is very bearish. The index closed the day under the 200 day moving average and below 3000. The late afternoon rally from the day’s lows was nice to see but the closing candlestick indicates the market will reverse lower on Monday which now seems obvious.

The 21 day moving average continues to decline further since the confirmed sell signal of March 2. All the moving averages are now turning lower including the 200 day. This is the 4th day below the 200 day moving average. Normally, two closes below the 200 day advises investors to put on some protection, even a small amount just in case a correction turns nasty.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling rapidly which is a signal for more downside this week. The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to turn down, which is another signal to be watching.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 6 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is negative and falling lower. It is again signaling oversold.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Friday Feb 21. The down signal gained further strength on Friday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is moving sideways.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Monday.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and not oversold, leaving room for the markets to fall lower.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling sharply, indicating lower prices are picking up momentum. It also is at oversold levels.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3400 is resistance

3300 is resistance

3200 is resistance

3100 is light resistance

3075 is light resistance

3000 is good support

2960 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is good support

2800 is strong support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Mar 9 2020 

For Monday even if the futures pop back up, the outlook is decidedly negative. The chance of the index revisiting and breaking the Feb 28 low of 2855 is extremely high for Monday.

Last week the market tried to bounce back up with two strong bounces, both of which were historic in size. None of that has made a difference. With the coronavirus news continuing to show further infections globally and now the obvious outbreak of an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the chance of a recession is much higher. That will bring in more selling and a new low. The original outlook just before the correction started was for a 20% decline. That seems very likely after the weekend oil war outbreak. There is good support for the S&P at 2800 but a 20% correction would see the S&P down to 2715.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 22 2024 – Bullish and Higher But Dips Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday was an exciting day as stocks like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) moved lower early in the day and dragged some stocks ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Nov 21 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Nov 21 2024 review the outlook now that we have earnings from NVIDIA, Palo Alto Networks, and others. Stocks discussed ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 21 2024 – Dip Likely Possible Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw another wild ride with the index opening and falling thanks in large part to stunning poor quarterly earnings from Target. It's stock fell a ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Nov 20 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Nov 20 2024 review the outlook with a new confirmed down signal but other signals advising stocks could move higher. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 20 2024 – Confirmed MACD Down Signal and NVIDIA

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw markets open lower as investors fretted over the chance of an expanding Ukraine-Russia war. The Russian dictator threatened nuclear weapons while most analysts felt ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Nov 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Nov 19 2024 review the outlook for stocks on Tuesday after the new technical down signal on Monday. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 19 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw continued pressure on stocks and a bounce attempt. The S&P traded 4.1 billion shares with 62% of all volume being traded higher and 57% ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Nov 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Nov 18 2024 review the outlook for stocks following Friday's drop and the loss for the week. There are a ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 18 2024 – Choppy – Possible Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: For Friday semiconductor stocks were leading the markets lower. By the close the S&P was down 78 points to 5870. For the week the index lost ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Nov 15 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Nov 15 2024 review the outlook for stocks following a lower close on Thursday. There are a number of stocks ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 15 2024 – Choppy With Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: For Thursday I had expected the index to dip a bit deeper than previous but to recover and close flat to higher. Instead the index slipped ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 14 2024 – Choppy – Dips Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks tried to climb but found ready sellers who took advantage of each jump higher in individual stocks. By the end of the day ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Nov 14 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Nov 14 2024 review the outlook for stocks as weakness continues to dominate trading. There are a number of stocks ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Nov 13 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Nov 13 2024 review the outlook for stocks following a lower close on Tuesday. There are a number of stocks ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 13 2024 – Choppy Trading Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the week long rally finally ran into too many sellers and stocks slipped lower. The SPX fell 17 points and closed at 5984. Volume ....... Read More