Stock Market Outlook for Mar 11 2020 – Weakness and Lower

With Monday’s market deeply oversold it just needed a spark to bounce on Tuesday. That spark was hope for a stimulus package to stave off the potential of a coronavirus induced recession.  By the end of the day the final hour of trading was aided by a rise in the price of oil. Overnight though the news of more coronavirus cases has investors once again nervous with the futures showing a large drop for the start on Wednesday.

Let’s look at the technical indicators from Tuesday’s trading to see what they might tell us about Wednesday’s trading.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Mar 10 2020 

The SPX chart continues to be very bearish. The index closed the day well below the 3000 support level at 2862.

The 21 day moving average continues to decline further since the confirmed sell signal of March 2. All the moving averages are now turning lower including the 200 day. The 21 day is almost ready to fall below the 100 day for a second sell signal.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling rapidly which is a signal for more downside this week. The closing candlestick was back inside the Lower Bollinger Band which gives it more room to fall back again. The closing candlestick is bearish with a long tail which often signals a suspect bounce.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Mar 10 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is negative and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Friday Feb 21. The down signal was still strong on Tuesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising but still negative. Normally this looks like a bounce.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Wednesday and not yet oversold.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising but still signaling lower prices are ahead.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3400 is resistance

3300 is resistance

3200 is resistance

3100 is light resistance

3075 is light resistance

3000 is resistance

2960 is light resistance

2900 is light resistance

2860 is light resistance

2840 is light resistance

2800 is strong support

2700 is strong support and marks a full correction of 20.4%.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Mar 11 2020 

It would be rare if the collapse on Monday were a one day event. Normally we will see at least the lows retested which we may see happen on Wednesday. All the technical indicators are not showing improvement enough to believe the market can bounce higher again on Wednesday. Instead the outlook is for the market to open lower, try to rise, fail and fall back, perhaps as low as the Monday low of 2734. There is a good chance the SPX could touch 2700 on Wednesday. If 2700 breaks, the index may be setting up for a deeper move to the 2500 level later this week or next which would place it back at the late 2018 correction levels. For now, Wednesday promises to be volatile with some big swings and a negative close. Let’s hope 2700 can hold the sellers back.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 27 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 27 2025 review the outlook for the start of the final week of January. Stocks discussed include Texas Instruments Stock (TXN), American Express Stock (AXP), Nucor Stock (NUE), General Motors Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 27 2025 – Overbought – Dips Likely – But Bullish Heading Into More Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday Jan 24, markets moved lower as the indexes remain overbought heading into the important week ahead of earnings from some of the biggest corporations. The SPX closed down 17 points for a modest loss and a ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 24 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 24 2025 review the outlook for the overbought markets. Stocks discussed include Abbott Labs Stock (ABT), Texas Instruments Stock (TXN), American Express Company Stock (AXP), Verizon Communications Stock (VZ) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 24 2025 – Still Overbought – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday the market was trending primarily sideways until the final 15 minutes when an influx of buy orders sent the SPX up from 6098 to 6118 for a new closing high. It also left the SPX even ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 23 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 23 2025 review the outlook for Thursday following another higher close on Wednesday.. Stocks discussed include Abbott Labs Stock (ABT), GE Vernova Stock (GEV), Texas Instruments Stock (TXN), American Express Company ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 23 2025 – Overbought – Possible Flat to Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw another positive day and the SPX moved above the 6100 intraday, for the first time in history. The index closed at 6086.37, a new closing high.  Volume dipped by 400 million shares to 4.4 billion. New ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 22 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 22 2025 review the outlook for Wednesday. Stocks discussed include Netflix Stock (NFLX), United Airlines Stock (UAL), Discover Financial Stock (DFS), American Airlines Stock (AAL), GE Aerospace (GE)  and more. The ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 22 2025 – MACD Up Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday's rally was stronger than expected with the SPX rallying 52 points ending the day above 6000 at 6049. Volume rose 400 million shares to 4.8 billion with 74% of volume advancing and 79% of all stocks rising. ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 21 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 21 2025 review the outlook for the third week of January. Stocks discussed include JP Morgan Chase Stock (JPM), Goldman Sachs Stock (GS), Apple Stock (AAPL),  Netflix Stock (NFLX), United Airlines ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 21 2025 – Unconfirmed MACD Up Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday's rally was ended with the second best rally of the week. The SPX rallied 59 points to end the week at 5996 but intraday it moved back 6000. Volume was higher than usual for the day before ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 17 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 17 2025 review the choppy trading on Thursday and outlook for Friday. Stocks discussed include UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), 3M Company Stock (MMM), Charles Schwab Stock (SCHW) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 17 2025 – A Little Weakness But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw investors taking profits after Wednesday's huge rally. In the final hour of trading the SPX was positive until sellers pushed back, taking profits and sending the SPX lower by 12 points to end the day at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 16 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 16 2025 review Wednesday's massive rally and outlines the outlook for the rally and handling trades over the next several weeks. Stocks discussed include Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), UnitedHealth Group Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 16 2025 – Higher Still

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday everything fell into place as the oversold market staged a strong rally as bond yields dipped on the back of slightly weaker core CPI numbers and exceptional earnings from the first round of bank earnings, released ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025 review Tuesday's volatile day of trading along with the outlook for Wednesday's trading. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Bank Of America ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 15 2025 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Jan 14 2025 stocks once more gyrated between gains and losses. The S&P was as low as 5805 and as high as 5871 before closing up 6 points to 5842. Volume dipped lower on Tuesday with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025 review Monday's market action which ended with a slight gain. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Citigroup Stock (C), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Goldman Sachs Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 14 2025 – Second Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks opened lower but all 3 indexes managed to close the day higher. The SPX fell below the 100 day moving average in the morning but managed to find buyers to help push the index back ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025 review Friday's sell-off, the outlook for today and the week. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Walt Disney (DIS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Citigroup Stock (C) ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 13 2025 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors sold stocks lower following a stronger than anticipated December jobs report which showed over 100,000 more jobs created than estimated. Many investors looked at the jobs numbers as possibility inflationary and a reason for the ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 314
• ›