Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday the ADP numbers came in at 99,000 well below estimates of 140,000 and continuing to show weakness.
The Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose by 2,000 to 227,000 which seemed to conflict with the declining ADP numbers.
With stocks under some selling pressure again on Thursday ahead of Friday’s August non-farm payroll report, the SPX ended lower but the NASDAQ ended higher.
The SPX ended down just 16 points to 5503. Intraday the SPX fell below 5500 to 5480 but by the close it had recovered 5500.
The NASDAQ closed up 43 points to 17127.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Sep 5 2024 to see what the signals advise for Fri Sep 6 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Sep 5 2024
The index closed at the 50 day moving average which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish but with longer shadows, top and bottom which signals the SPX could move in either direction on Friday. This is bearish.
The 21 day moving average is turning higher and closed above the 50 day. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average was unchanged and closed at 5506. This is neutral.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5379 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5155 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and turning up which is bearish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is turned lower. This is bearish.
The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Friday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 5 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Aug 14 2024. On Thu Sep 5 2024 a new unconfirmed down signal was issued.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling Friday will be lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5540 is resistance |
| 5525 is resistance |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 6 2024
For Friday the August Non-Farm Payroll Report will control the open and perhaps much of the day. If the numbers are too weak or too strong, investors could sell stocks lower.
If the number is only slightly off estimates stocks could rally as investors will expect the Fed to go through with am interest rate cut in September.
Meanwhile the technical indicators are almost all pointed lower however the 21 day moved above the 50 day on Thursday which is usually a major up signal. Countering this, the MACD technical indicator issued an unconfirmed down signal.
If there is more selling it is questionable just how much selling investors could expect. Tuesday’s market collapse has really not seen any follor though. This indicates that many investors are of the opinion the next move in stocks will be back to up shortly. If there are dips on Friday we could see buyers step in which would mute any drop. A plunge is not expected today.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Holiday
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was expected to come in at 48 but came in at 47.9
10:00 Construction spending was estimated to rise to -0.1% but stayed at -0.3% which is why housing sector fell on Tuesday
10:00 ISM manufacturing was expected to rise to 47.9% from 46.8% but rose to 47.2%. Anything below 50 is considered contraction in the economy
Wednesday:
8:30 Trade deficit was expected at -79.1 billion but came in at -78.8 billion
10:00 Job openings were expected to come in at 8.1 million but came in lower at 7.7 million
10:00 Factory orders came in higher, as estimated at 5%
2:00 Fed Beige Book
Thursday:
8:15 ADP Employment wass expected to rise to 140,000 but came in at 99,000.
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were expected to drop to 225,000 but closed higher at 227,000.
8:30 Productivity came in as estimated at 2.5%
8:30 Unit-labor costs were expected to dip to 0.8% but fell deeper to 0.4%
9:45 Final services PMI was estimated at 55.1 but came in at 55.7
10:00 ISM services was estimated to slip to 51.0% but rose to 51.5%
Friday:
8:30 August Non-Farm payroll Numbers are estimated to rise to 161,000 from 114,000 in July.
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated to fall to 4.2% from 4.3%
8:30 hourly wage os expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%
8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year are estimated to rise to 3.7% from 3.6%