Stock Market Outlook for Fri Oct 4 2024 – All About September Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Thursday was a choppy day of trading with a bit lower volume but constant testing of the 5700 level and moves down to the 5680 valuation level. The last 50 minutes of trading saw higher volume and some buying which recovered some of the day’s loss.

The S&P closed down 9 points to 5699 on 3.6 billion shares traded. 64% of all stocks were falling by the close of the day.

The NASDAQ lost 6 points to close at 17,918 on 5.3 billion shares, the lowest volume so far this week. On the index 64% of all stocks were falling, matching the S&P percentage.

With investors waiting for September’s non-farm payroll report due out on Friday at 8:30, weakness was to be expected.

Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Thu Oct 3 2024 to see what to expect for Fri Oct 4 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Oct 3 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and well below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish with shadows which advise we could see stocks move either up or down on Friday but swings could be bigger than anticipated.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5642. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5546. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5471 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5244 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and turning up. This is bearish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is is turning sideways which is bearish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Friday but with 3 warnings signals and the September jobs report due out.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Oct 3 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Oct 4 2024 

On Friday the September jobs report is the most important event for the week. Estimates are for unemployment numbers to have risen slightly to 150,000 to 152,000 from 142,000 in August. The unemployment rate of 4.2% is not expected to increase or fall. If these numbers are met, the index should move higher. If the numbers are higher, we could see the index slip.

Meanwhile the technical indicators are advising the day will end lower and the MACD technical indicator has an unconfirmed down signal issued at the close on Thursday. This is the most accurate of the technical indicators for spotting the chance in market direction. Therefore even if the index climbs higher on Friday, we could see more weakness next week.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 Chicago business barometer rose to 46.6 rather than fell as estimated.

1:55 Fed Chair Powell speech touched on nothing new but helped the late afternoon sell-off.

Tuesday:

9:45 S&P Final manufacturing PMI beat estimates coming in at 47.3

10:00 ISM manufacturing surprised coming in unchanged at 47.2%

10:00 Construction spending came in lower than estimated at -0.1%

10:00 Job openings were higher than estimated at 8 million surprising many economists.

During the day – Auto sales were 15.1 million

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment was well above estimates coming in at 143,000

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 225,000, higher than estimated

9:45 S&P final services PMI was 55.2 down just slightly from 55.4

10:00 ISM services rose more than expected to 54.9% from 51.5%

10:00 Factory orders fell -0.2% instead of being flat at 0.00%

Friday:

8:30 non-faarm payroll for September estimated at 150 – 152000

8:30 unemployment rate estimated steady at 4.2%

8:30 hourly wages are estimated to have dipped to 0.3% from 0.4% prior

8:30 hourly wages year-over-year are estimated at 3.8% unchanged