Prior Trading Day Summary:
Thursday saw stocks trend slightly lower as the Consumer Price Index rose slightly higher than expected. Most of the action though was investors waiting for Friday’s bank earnings which unofficially kicks off the next round of quarterly earnings.
The S&P fell 12 points to close at 5780 on just 3.3 billion shares traded.
The NASDAQ closed down only 9 points to 18,282 on better volume of 5.9 billion shares traded.
Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Thu Oct 10 2024 to see what to expect for Fri Oct 11 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Oct 10 2024
The index closed almost unchanged just below the Upper Bollinger Band and above the 21 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5706. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5576. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5498 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5269 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and climbing. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway and at present stocks look to move higher out of the latest squeeze.
The S&P chart is bullish for Friday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Oct 10 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Oct 3 2024. On Thursday a new weak unconfirmed up signal was issued at the close.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has aa up signal in place and is near overbought readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and nearing overbought readings.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling which signals we could see a lower close today.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5790 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5765 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5740 is resistance |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5680 is resistance |
| 5650 is support |
| 5625 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5575 is support |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Oct 11 2024
For Friday the SPX has a new unconfirmed up signal from the MACD technical indicator. As well most of the technical indicators are bullish, even those that turned lower on Thursday but only slightly. As well today we get the latest Producer Price Index number which might surprise as we saw from the CPI numbers on Thursday. That will be a negative for stocks and will see stocks move lower.
At he same time, investors get the latest quarterly results from a number of banks which unofficially starts the next round of quarterly earnings. Analysts are expecting all the bank stocks today to beat estimates and the same quarter last year. This will be bullish making the outlook higher for Friday’s close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit was much lower than expected at $8.9 billion versus $13.2 billion estimated and $26.6 billion prior.
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index rose slightly to 91.5
8:30 Trade deficit rose to -70.4 billion from – $70.8 billion
Wednesday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories decline slightly to 0.1%
2:00 Minutes of Fed’s September FOMC meeting
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in much higher than expected at 258,000
8:30 Consumer price index was unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 Core CPI failed to drop but stayed at 0.3%
8:30 CPI year-over-year rose to 2.4% from 2.3% estimated.
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year rose to 3.3% from 3.2%. This was a surprise
Friday:
8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to slip to 0.1%
8:30 Core Producer Price Index os estimated to drop to 0.2% from 0.3% prior
8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated to be unchanged at 1.7%
8:30 Core PPI year-over-year is estimated to slip to 3.2% from 3.3%
10:00 Consumer sentiment is expected to rise slightly to 71 from 70.1