Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 5 2021 – All About The Jobs Numbers

Thursday was a see-saw day with the index rushing higher at the open to make a new intraday high of 4683 only to then dip back to 4665. From there the index entered a see-saw trading range until the last half hour when the index shot higher and closed at 4680 just 3 points below the intraday high.

The NASDAQ rose higher as well gaining 128 points and closing at a new high of 15,940 just 60 points from 16,000 which I had thought might take much of November to reach. Instead the index rose this far in just 4 trading days.

For Friday investors get the October unemployment report. While that will affect the market for much of the day, the technical indicators are still worth reviewing as they will impact the market direction into next week.

Let’s review the close on Thursday to see what’s in store for the final day of the week, Nov 5.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Nov 4 2021 

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band for a tenth day but still higher which left behind a bullish candlestick for Friday.

The Upper Bollinger Band is still rising which is bullish. The Lower Bollinger Band is back turning higher. This is bearish.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing. This is bullish.

For Thursday the chart is dominantly bullish except for the Lower Bollinger Band and that could easily change if the index keeps rising.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Nov 4 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Oct 13 2021 . On Thursday the up signal gained strength for the second day in a row.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and overbought.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place and still very overbought..

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and very overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4655 is resistance

4600 is resistance

4550 is light support

4525 is light support

4500 is support

4490 is support

4475 is support

4450 is support

4400 is support

4370 is light support

4350 is light support

4300 is light support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Nov 5 2021 

For Friday the technical indicators are somewhat split although a number of very overbought, which indicates we could see some weakness on Friday although a lot will depend on the unemployment report.

While Friday morning will be all about the October jobs numbers, overall the sentiment is bullish for stocks. That means even a miss on unemployment might send the index lower initially, but the odds of the index rising soon after are high.

MACD has been gaining strength for a second day and momentum is rising again. Once the initial reaction to the unemployment numbers begins to fade, the index could slip slightly and then move higher for another positive day on Friday. Monday next week, could start lower depending on the October unemployment report and Friday’s closing numbers.

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