Prior Trading Day Summary:
Prior Trading Day Summary:On Thursday stocks had big swings with the SPX falling as deep as 5670 and rallying to 5732 before closing at 5693 for a small loss of 19 points. The SPX is still up 25 points on the week. Volume rose to 4.6 billion and new lows rose to 85 from 67 yesterday. 56% of all stocks were falling on Thursday which was actually slightly less than yesterday’s 63%.
The NASDAQ fell 95 points to end the day at 17804. For the week the index is up just 20 points. Volume was lower on Thursday at 8.2 billion shares traded with 56% of all volume rising but 54% of all stocks falling.
Let’s review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Thu Mar 27 2025 to see how stocks will move on Fri Mar 28 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Mar 27 2025
The index closed below the 200 day and 21 day which is bearish.
The closing candlestick has two long shadows at the close. This is a cautionary signal for a second day advising while a bounce is possible, a deeper dip is also anticipated.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5713 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday Mar 13 it fell below the 100 day for a second down signal. For Friday if the 21 day closes below the 200 day, it is a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5907 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5846 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5702 for a fifth day which is neutral.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which may signal a chance the selling is ending. We may see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze on Friday or Monday.
For Friday the SPX chart is showing primarily bearish signals and a chance for a lower close.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday Mar 21 2025. The up signal was strong on Thu Mar 27 2025.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place but is overbought and a down signal is almost ready.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and no longer overbought.
|
| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling a lower close is expected. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is resistance |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5585 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 28 2025
For Friday the MACD technical indicator is still bullish along with momentum but most of the other technical indicators are signaling caution and bearishness. The economic reports on Thursday were overwhelming better than estimated and showed some strength to the economy which surprised most analysts who have called for weaker statistics.
The close below the 200 day moving average is not a big concern from Thursday as the index closed almost where it ended on Wednesday. However for Friday weakness is higher heading into the weekend making a lower close more likely. On Friday investors get the latest read on personal income and spending and the Personal Consumption Expenditures numbers which are estimated to be unchanged. A worse reading on Friday will be bearish on the day.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI rose more than estimated to 54.3 from 51.0 prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI dropped more than estimated to 49.8 from 52.7 prior
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case Shiller home price index irose higher than estimated at 4.7% from 4.5% prior
10:00 Consumer confidence dipped to 92.9 from 100.1 prior indicating some concerns from consumers.
10:00 New home sales rose more than estimated to 676,000 from 657,000 prior
Wednesday:
8:30 Durable goods orders were higher than estimated at 0.9% but still down from 3.3% prior
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose just 1,000 to 224,000
8:30 GOP (second revision) is rose to 2.4% from 2.3% prior
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods was well beyond estimates and came in at $147.9 Billion versus -$155.6 billion prior
8:30 Advanced retail inventories beat estimates at 0.1%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories were weaker at 0.3%
10:00 Pending home sales rose 2.0% higher than estimated and well beyond -4.6% prior
Friday:
8:30 Personal income is expected to fall to 0.4% from 0.9% prior
8:30 Personal spending is estimated to rise 0.5% from -0.2% prior
8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is estimated unchanged at 0.3%
8:30 PCE year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 2.5%
8:30 Core PCE Index is estimated unchanged at 0.3%
8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated to rise to 2.7% from 2.6%
10:00 Consumer sentiment is estimated unchanged at 57.9