Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 17 2025 – A Little Weakness But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Thursday saw investors taking profits after Wednesday’s huge rally. In the final hour of trading the SPX was positive until sellers pushed back, taking profits and sending the SPX lower by 12 points to end the day at 5937. Volume was lower by 300 million shares but new highs were 73 versus 25 new lows. 63% of all volume was advancing and 61% of all stocks were higher.

The NASDAQ saw more selling than the SPX. Volume was lower to 7.2 billion shares with 113 new lows versus 82 new highs. 57% of all volume through was advancing and 50% of stocks were rising by the close. The day ended with a loss of 123 points to end the day at 19,338.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Thu Jan 16 2025 to see what to expect for the final trading day of the week, with Monday seeing no trading due to Martin Luther King Day.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jan 16 2025

The index failed to break above the 50 day moving average but closed at the 21 day which is neutral to bullish.

The closing candlestick is signaling that Friday will see some selling but there is a chance for a positive close.

The 21 day moving average fell back to 5933 which is bearish. It fell below the 50 day moving average Monday Jan 13 which is a down signal.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5962 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5821which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5591 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is neutral.. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.

For Friday, the SPX chart is slightly more bullish than bearish.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 15 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 17 2025 

On Thursday investors were shaken a bit by the higher than expected initial jobless claims that rose to 217,000, well above estimates. At the same time, retail sales were lower at 0.4%. Economic signals were mixed on Thursday but bond yields didn’t move by much which should have helped stocks more than it did.

For Friday stocks do not look as strong as they did on Wednesday afternoon. Profit-taking in many stocks on Thursday saw some bigger dips than usual for simple profit-taking. Monday is a holiday and there is no trading. Often on the day before Martin Luther King Day, stocks struggle and often close flat.

Technical indicators are still primarily showing strength to the upside particularly with the MACD down signal, almost gone as of Thursday’s close. We could see an up signal early next week but trading volumes need to rise. Until then stocks may wander, but a positive close, even a slight one, is expected for Friday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

2:00 Monthly US Federal budget rose to -$75 billion

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index rose more than expected to 105.1

8:30 Producer Price Index for Dec fell to 0.2%

8:30 Core PPI surprised by staying at 0.1% and not rising

8:30 PPI year-over-year rose more than estimated to 3.3%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year fell back to 3.3% another surprise

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index rose to 0.4% from 0.3%

8:30 CPI year-over-year rose as estimated to 2.9% from 2.7%

8:30 Core CPI slipped to 0.2% from 0.3% prior

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year slipped to 3.2% from 3.3% prior

2:00 Fed’s Beige Book was not a concern

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose higher than estimated to 217,000

8:30 Retail sales dipped lower than estimated to 0.4%

8:30 Import price index was unchanged at 0.1%

10:00 Business inventories were unchanged at 0.1%

10:00 Home Builder confidence index rose higher than estimates to 47 from 46 prior

Friday:

8:30 Housing starts are estimated at 1.33 million, up from 1.29 million

8:30 Building permits are estimated to have fallen to 1.46 million from 1.51 million prior

9:15 industrial production is estimated to rise to 0.2% from -0.1% prior

9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated to have risen to 77% from 76.8% prior