Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 13 2024 – Confirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Fresh on the heels of Wednesday’s rally came the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) number which was higher than estimated, coming in at 0.4% rather than the anticipated 0.2%. Core Producer Price Index came in lower at 0.1% versus 0.2% estimated. Year-over-year the PPI number was 3% up from 2.6%. Core PPI was unchanged at 3.5%. At the same time the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in higher than expected at 242,000. All of this worried investors that Wednesday’s rally might have been premature and profit-taking started at the open.

The SPX index fell 33 points to end the day at 6051. For the week the SPX is down 39 points.

The NASDAQ fell 132 points to close at 19,902.

The SPX saw 72% of all stocks fall while the NASDAQ saw 70% of all stock move lower.  For the NASDAQ this was the highest number of stocks moving lower since Nov 15. For the SPX it was the highest percentage since Nov 12. Obviously a negative close on Thursday for both indexes.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Dec 11 2024 to see what to expect for Fri Dec 13 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Dec 12 2024

The index gave back about two-thirds of the Wednesday’s rally. Many investors still believe that hotter inflation number will not affect next week’s anticipated interest rate reduction.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Friday.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 6003. The rally is slowing considerably and most noticeable in the 21 day.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5899. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5759 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5504 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook has shifted to bearish for the Bollinger Bands.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review for Thu Dec 12 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 13 2024 

For Friday we might see a bounce attempt in the morning helped by strong earnings from Costco Stock (COST), Broadcom Stock (AVGO) and RH Stock (RH) which reported after hours. The index looks steady enough for Friday that a slip lower should not be a problem for the start of next week. Many investors jumped into stocks on Wednesday and many jumped back out. That often means weaker hands are sitting on the sidelines while other investors are holding tight and waiting for the expected Santa Clause Rally. The Fed’s highly anticipated rate cut on Wednesday next week should help the bulls. For Friday though the outlook is for a lower close.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Wholesale inventories are expected to rise to 0.2% from -0.2% prior.

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index rose sharply to 101.7

8:30 US Productivity for the 3rd quarter was unchanged at 2.2%

8:30 Unit labor costs fell to 0.8% for the third quarter. This was unexpected.

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index for Nov rose as expected to 0.3%

8:30 CPI year-over-year came in as expected at 2.7%

8:30 Core Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year came in unchanged at 3.3%

2:00 Monthly US Federal Budget rose to $366.88 billion

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were a lot higher at 242,000

8:30 Producer Price Indexwas higher than estimated, coming in at 0.4%

8:30 Core PPI fell lower to 0.1%

Friday:

8:30 Import Price Index is estimated to fall to -0.2% from 0.3% prior.