FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 29 2022 – Choppy Bias Lower

Apr 29, 2022 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - Choppy Bias Lower

Thursday saw the market react strongly to earnings from a number of the major companies. That mixed with an oversold condition and a decline in the GDP was enough to get a strong bounce from stocks. All three indexes moved higher.

The S&P rose 103  points to close at 4287. The NASDAQ jumped 382 points to 12,871 marking the best up day since March 16.

But stocks were very oversold and investors reacted when they saw the GDP rate which fell 1.4% as a potential signal that the Fed may curb the rising rates as the year progresses. Investors though, may be too early with that outlook.

Let’s review Thursday’s closing technical indicators to see what they can tell us about the final trading day of April 2022.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Apr 28 2022 

On Thursday the closing candlestick shows that Thursday was a bounce, more technical in nature than solidly bullish. This candlestick often signals a weaker follow-up on the next day and even a potential for a lower close.

With more down signals in place, the 21 day moving average is now preparing to fall back below the 200 day moving average. All the averages are continuing to fall which is still bearish.

The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is over, leaving behind a bearish signal with the Lower Bollinger Band falling deeper while the Upper Bollinger Band is now turning down.

The 200 day moving average is no longer rising and is now at the 4400 level.

The chart is still about 95% bearish for Friday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Apr 28 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal Friday April 8. On Thursday the down signal lost some strength but at minus 24.84, it is still very bearish. The histogram also lost a bit of strength but is also very bearish.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is signaling oversold.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and no longer oversold.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising slightly.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4550 is light resistance

4525 is light resistance

4500 is resistance

4490 is light resistance

4475 is light resistance

4450 is light resistance

4400 is resistance

4370 is light support

4350 is light resistance

4300 is light resistance

4290 is light resistance

4270 was light support

4250 was good support

4225 was light support

4200 is good support

4150 is good support

4100 is light support

4050 is light support

4025 is light support

4000 is good support


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Apr 29 2022 

If you look at the support and resistance levels above you can see that 4300 and 4290 are now light resistance. On Thursday the index ran into selling as it reached the 4300 level. On Friday these two levels are still going to resist the bulls.

Amazon, Intel, Roku and others has poor results after hours on Friday and that means weakness will start, probably from the open. Even Apple, which beat on earnings and revenue, probably didn’t have a strong enough beat to stop investors from taking profits. From there though, dips in Apple are probably opportunities. For Amazon, more downside is likely even though a lot of analysts talked up the stock even with its horrendous earnings report. I would wait at least until next week to see where the stock may head. Many companies are discussing supply lines, rising costs and labor issues going forward and that will weigh on stocks. This makes every rally probably more a trading opportunity than a chance the S&P will race ahead and finally recover the old highs or even come close. I wouldn’t expect much to change until perhaps the late summer or early fall.

I didn’t post the Market Breadth Indicators for members tonight but suffice to say the bounce was great but the numbers failed to improve but continue to point to the SPX having a chance to move lower. For Friday I am expect a choppy day with a bias lower. I would continue to take advantage of bounces to lock in profits and raise capital for trades when the next dip lower comes.

Potential Market Moving Events

Thursday:

8:30 Initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims were right in line with expectations. No sign of a labor market weakening.

8:30 Red GDP first estimate was -1.4%.

Friday:

8:30 Employment cost index

8:30 PCE Price Index

8:30 Core PCE price index

8:30 Nominal personal income and consumer spending

8:30 Real disposable incomes and real consumer spending

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment and 5 year inflation expectations

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 4 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 4 2025 review the collapse of stocks on Thursday and the outlook for Friday. Stocks discussed for today include ....... Read More
All About The Jobs Numbers

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 4 2025 – All About The March Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw stocks collapsing worldwide following higher than expected tariffs from President Trump. At was a brutal day, the worse single day since 2020. The SPX ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025 review the outlook for stocks after tariffs were announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for today include Chevron ....... Read More
Stock Market Outlook bearish

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 3 2025 – Bearish Following Higher Than Expected Tariffs

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wed Apr 2 2025, investors rallied stocks for a third day on hope that the tariffs being introduced would be lower than many expected. As ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025 review the second higher day on Tuesday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ....... Read More
Bearish bounce likely

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 2 2025 – Tariffs Day – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Apr 1 2025 stocks sold lower before finding some buyers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were back positive. The SPX closed up ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025 review the afternoon rally from Monday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF ....... Read More
Nice Bounce But Still Bearish

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 1 2025 – Nice Bounce But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Mon Mar 31 2025 stocks seemed headed for another low until buyers finally returned. The index bounced and the SPX closed up 31 points to ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025 review the continuation of the sell-off. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica ....... Read More
Bearish bounce likely

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 31 2025 – Bounce Attempt Likely But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Fri Mar 28 2025 stocks plunged lower without any large rally attempt. This lead to more selling which saw the index close near the day's ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025 review the state of the market. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica ....... Read More
Stock Market Outlook Weakness

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 28 2025 – Weakness Into The Weekend

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks had big swings with the SPX falling as deep as 5670 and rallying to 5732 before closing at 5693 for a small loss ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025 review the outlook for the rally as well as comments on the impact of the 25% auto ....... Read More
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 - Bounce Attempt

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 – Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors reacted to news of tariffs on automobiles entering the USA. There was also some profit-taking after 3 days of rallying. The S&P closed ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025 review the outlook following a choppy day of trading on Tuesday, during which volumes to the downside ....... Read More
Stock Market Outlook A Bit of Weakness But Still Higher

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 26 2025 – A Little Weakness But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday stocks gave back some of the gains from Monday's massive rally but there was still some strength but selling was more dominant. Investors still ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 25 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 25 2025 review the outlook for today following Monday's large rally. Stocks discussed for Tuesday include VIX ETF, Apple ....... Read More
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 25 2025 - MACD Up Signal Confirmed

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 25 2025 – MACD Up Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Mon Mar 24 2025 stocks finally managed to push above the 200 day moving average and close above it. The rally was strong enough that ....... Read More
Morning Investing Strategy Notes

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 24 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 24 2025 review the outlook for the start of the final week of March. Stocks discussed for Monday include ....... Read More
Stock Market Outlook Unconfirmed Up Signal

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 24 2025 – Unconfirmed MACD Up Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday March 21 2025 the SPX had a wide range, falling to 5603 but closing slightly positive at 5667. Volume was 9.6 billion thanks to ....... Read More

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 4 2025 – All About The March Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw stocks collapsing worldwide following higher than expected tariffs from President Trump. At was a brutal day, the worse single day since 2020. The SPX closed down 274 points to 5396 on 7.3 billion shares …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025 review the outlook for stocks after tariffs were announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for today include Chevron Stock (CVX), Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM), VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 3 2025 – Bearish Following Higher Than Expected Tariffs

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wed Apr 2 2025, investors rallied stocks for a third day on hope that the tariffs being introduced would be lower than many expected. As we found out after the market closed, the tariffs were …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025 review the second higher day on Tuesday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF, RH Stock (RH) and more. The morning Investing Strategy …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 2 2025 – Tariffs Day – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Apr 1 2025 stocks sold lower before finding some buyers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were back positive. The SPX closed up 21 points to 5633 on 4.5 billion shares traded. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025 review the afternoon rally from Monday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 1 2025 – Nice Bounce But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Mon Mar 31 2025 stocks seemed headed for another low until buyers finally returned. The index bounced and the SPX closed up 31 points to 5612. Volume was good at 5.3 billion shares and by …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025 review the continuation of the sell-off. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 31 2025 – Bounce Attempt Likely But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Fri Mar 28 2025 stocks plunged lower without any large rally attempt. This lead to more selling which saw the index close near the day’s low. The SPX lost 112 points and ended the week …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025 review the state of the market. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 28 2025 – Weakness Into The Weekend

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks had big swings with the SPX falling as deep as 5670 and rallying to 5732 before closing at 5693 for a small loss of 19 points. The SPX is still up 25 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025 review the outlook for the rally as well as comments on the impact of the 25% auto tariffs announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 – Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors reacted to news of tariffs on automobiles entering the USA. There was also some profit-taking after 3 days of rallying. The S&P closed down 64 points to 5712 but on declining volume of …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025 review the outlook following a choppy day of trading on Tuesday, during which volumes to the downside were dominant. Stocks discussed for Wednesday include VIX ETF, Apple …

Subscribe For The Latest News