FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Outlook For Nov 16 2012

Nov 15, 2012 | Stock Market Outlook

Market Direction remains the single most important aspect in investing, but that is obvious to investors. Each night I take a moment out to look at the S&P 500 using my favorite technical indicators. If I notice something out of the ordinary I then compare these same technical indicators to the other two indexes to confirm what i have seen in the S&P 500 charts. The present stock market direction correction has the DOW down 8.5%, the S&P 500 also down 8.5% and the NASDAQ down 11.5%. There could though still be more room to fall. In an ongoing bull market a 10% correction is common so there is still room for more Market Direction downside in this correction.

Today though saw something different occur in market direction that we have not seen in the last few trading sessions. Today near the close investors bought shares rather than sold them. Let’s take a look at today’s Market Direction action.

Market Direction Action On Nov 15 2012

It was an interesting day as all three indexes displayed the same market direction patterns. They sold off into the lunch hour and then rallied into the mid afternoon only to sell off into the last half hour. Throughout the day the market direction continued to exhibit the pattern of lower highs even in an intraday chart.

Somewhat new today was that stocks, rather than closing on the lows, saw buyers step in and push Market Direction higher for the last half hour on all three indexes. So was this buying or short covering?  This has not been the case over the past few days as the sellers have repeatedly sold into the close which is a bearish signal.

Market direction Nov 15 2012

Market direction on Nov 15 2012 - 5 minute chart

Market Timing Technical Indicators For Nov 15 2012

To get a better idea as to what was going on, let’s look at the market timing technical indicators for today.

Momentum Market Timing Technical Indicator continued to push to the downside and does not show a pattern that would make me believe a market direction bounce is imminent.

MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence)  which was the first Technical Indicator to advise back on September 25 and 26 that the market direction had changed to down, is continuing to push into more negative readings.

The Ultimate Oscillator is extremely oversold but the readings were lower yesteday than they are today.

Rate Of Change Market Timing Technical Indicator is continuing to fall deeper into negative territory and continues to warn that more downside is ahead.

Slow Stochastic is extremely oversold but the readings still point to the possibility of lower market direction a few days out.

Finally Fast Stochastic Technical Indicator is in agreement with the Slow Stochastic as to market direction, however the Fast Stochastic D period is now reading just 5.16 while the K period is at 4.55. This would indicate that the market direction remains lower but the strength of the downside action in the markets is getting close to neutral.

The Market Timing Technical Indicators are still solidly bearish and the readings are extremely oversold. This almost always is followed by a market direction bounce higher. Whether we get that bounce tomorrow is tough to say, but I am continuing to hold my SDS and DXD shares although I have lightened up on them a bit over the past couple of trading sessions as I do believe the markets are overbought and could push higher. I believe any rise in the markets is simply a bounce and the correction will continue after the next bounce.

Market Direction Outlook For Options Expiry on Friday

I have been looking for a bounce up in market direction for a few trading sessions now and none have materialized. Instead there are small daily rallies that are sold into by investors. All the stock markets are exhibiting the same pattern of lower highs and lower lows which is bearish for stocks.

The Market Timing Technical Indicators are all still quite bearish but many are so oversold that a bounce should happen. For that to occur investors need to have the conviction to buy more stocks and push the market direction higher. That seems a tall order considering the present economic environment with the concern about the fiscal cliff and continuing negative action in the markets. I continue to remain cautious with market direction and trade my options to the downside.

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 30 2025 – Higher Open But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks faced a choppy day with a number of dips including during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The SPX had a wide range with a intraday low of 6013 and high of 6062. This …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 29 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 29 2025 review Tuesday’s bounce and the outlook for today. Stocks discussed include IWM ETF, Tesla Stock (TSLA), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Meta Stock (META) and more. The morning Investing …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 29 2025 – Bullish Even With The Fed

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday stocks staged a rebound with the SPX closing up 55 points, recovering 66% of Monday’s loss. The NASDAQ rose 391 points recovering 64% of Monday’s loss. Let’s review the technical indicators at the close …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 28 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 28 2025 review Monday’s tech sell-off. Stocks discussed include IWM ETF, Starbucks Stock (SBUX), F5 Networks Stock (FFIV), Norfolk Southern Corp Stock (NSC) and more. The morning Investing Strategy …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 28 2025 – Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Mon Jan 27 2025 stock indexes were lower as tech stocks sold-off following reports of a “cheaper” AI model being released by a Chinese startup, DeepSeek. While information was a bit murky, investors decided it …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 27 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 27 2025 review the outlook for the start of the final week of January. Stocks discussed include Texas Instruments Stock (TXN), American Express Stock (AXP), Nucor Stock (NUE), General …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 27 2025 – Overbought – Dips Likely – But Bullish Heading Into More Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday Jan 24, markets moved lower as the indexes remain overbought heading into the important week ahead of earnings from some of the biggest corporations. The SPX closed down 17 points for a modest loss …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 24 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 24 2025 review the outlook for the overbought markets. Stocks discussed include Abbott Labs Stock (ABT), Texas Instruments Stock (TXN), American Express Company Stock (AXP), Verizon Communications Stock (VZ) …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 24 2025 – Still Overbought – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday the market was trending primarily sideways until the final 15 minutes when an influx of buy orders sent the SPX up from 6098 to 6118 for a new closing high. It also left the …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 23 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 23 2025 review the outlook for Thursday following another higher close on Wednesday.. Stocks discussed include Abbott Labs Stock (ABT), GE Vernova Stock (GEV), Texas Instruments Stock (TXN), American …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 23 2025 – Overbought – Possible Flat to Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw another positive day and the SPX moved above the 6100 intraday, for the first time in history. The index closed at 6086.37, a new closing high.  Volume dipped by 400 million shares to 4.4 …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 22 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 22 2025 review the outlook for Wednesday. Stocks discussed include Netflix Stock (NFLX), United Airlines Stock (UAL), Discover Financial Stock (DFS), American Airlines Stock (AAL), GE Aerospace (GE)  and …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 22 2025 – MACD Up Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday’s rally was stronger than expected with the SPX rallying 52 points ending the day above 6000 at 6049. Volume rose 400 million shares to 4.8 billion with 74% of volume advancing and 79% of all …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 21 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 21 2025 review the outlook for the third week of January. Stocks discussed include JP Morgan Chase Stock (JPM), Goldman Sachs Stock (GS), Apple Stock (AAPL),  Netflix Stock (NFLX), …

Subscribe For The Latest News