FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Outlook For March 6 2014 – Consolidating and Up

Mar 5, 2014 | Stock Market Outlook

I did a lot of trades today in the market direction portfolio and a couple of Trading For Pennies Strategy trades as well. The market direction moved as expected today with a sideways action while stocks consolidate the gains made on Tuesday. It is encouraging to see the indexes hold their present valuations especially after such a huge up day on Tuesday. Normally a strong up day like Tuesday will create such an overbought condition that stocks will move lower the following day as investors take profits. That was not the case today. As well the ADP numbers although somewhat disappointing did point to continued growth in employment even if not at the level to really get the economy humming.. The last thing the market direction up needs is any kind of surprise to the employment numbers and Friday we get the February numbers.

S&P Market Direction Intraday for March 5 2014

The one minute S&P chart below is quite different from yesterday. On Tuesday the market direction shot up and then stayed almost completely sideways for 90% of the day. Today the market action was choppy but there were some significant events. The first was the drop in the morning down to 1871.11 which ended up being the low for the day. In the late afternoon around 3:00 PM selling pushed the market direction back to 1871.55 but the market held above 1871 which is a good sign for more advances this week. The majority of the day the 1872.50 level was the prime support point for the market and a number of times the S&P pushed above 1875 and then tried to push beyond 1876. Investors were anxious today to push the index higher but the overbought condition has brought out sellers who are using the spikes higher, to unload some of their positions and readjust for another move higher later this week and into next. Overall though investors are seeking higher valuations for stocks.

Market Direction intraday Mar 05 2014

Advance Declines For March 5 2014

The advance – decline numbers today show how choppy the action was with 55% of stocks advancing and 44% declining. There were just 105 new highs which was a lot fewer than yesterday’s 307 new highs, but there were only 52 new lows which is far less than most numbers we have seen all of this year. These numbers are bullish for further advances.

Market Direction Closings For March 5 2014

The S&P closed at 1873.81 almost unchanged and down just 0.10. The Dow closed at 16,360.10 down 35.10. The NASDAQ closed at 4357.97 up 6.00 on the day.

The Russell 2000 ETF IWM was almost unchanged closing down just 0.07 at $119.76. All the indexes showed strength today and managed to hold their gains from Tuesday. This is a good sign for the markets.

Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of March 5 2014

Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of March 5 2014 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for March 6 2014.

market direction technical analysis  Mar 05 2014

The 1750 level is holding the S&P up. The past several days has seen support building at the 1840 level. Today we saw the 1871 level hold recent gains. This is the second test of the 1871 level. This bodes well for the 1840 level. The longer the market stays above 1871, the stronger support will be at 1840 if the S&P moves back lower.

For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum has been the best indicator over the past two months, replacing MACD as the most accurate indicator. Momentum for the second day is climbing.

For MACD Histogram I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Feb 11. MACD moved back up a bit higher today. While not significant in its rise today, the fact that it is moving back up is still good news for the market direction to continue higher.

The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and moving further into overbought territory.

Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change jumped dramatically yesterday and I indicated I had expected the Rate Of Change would pull back today. This is what happened but the outlook is still quite positive from the Rate Of Change.

For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is signaling that the market direction is back to up for Thursday. Yesterday it was pointing to weakness which is what we did see for the S&P. Now the Slow Stochastic although still very overbought, is signaling higher prices are ahead for stocks.

For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is signaling further gains tomorrow for stocks. It is extremely overbought.

Market Direction Outlook And Strategy for March 6 2014

With the Ukraine out of the spotlight the market direction today held its ground. Investors were busy readjusting positions as they took some profits from Tuesday’s massive run-up. At the close today the market direction technical indicators are pointing to more gains ahead for stocks. There will be more consolidating, which could even result in some weakness but the trend is up unless the Ukrainian Crisis should take a turn for the worse.

With support continuing to build at the 1840 level, stocks have a good chance to push beyond 1880 in coming days. For Thursday as long as the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims stays below 350,000 the outlook should remain positive for stocks.

Momentum is back building to the upside and MACD is once again moving higher. The market direction up is still heavily overbought but markets can continue to climb even when very overbought. I am expecting tomorrow to be choppy again but the bias is for stocks to not give back their gains but to consolidate and move up. All the indications are that the markets will see a positive close tomorrow.

I will be trading the dips again tomorrow in the market both in the market direction portfolio as well as the big cap stocks I follow. At present, trading against the dips is the best way to trade the overbought conditions the market direction up is facing.

Market Direction Internal Links

Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)

How I Use Market Timing

How I Use Market Timing

Understanding Short-Term Signals

Various Market Timing Systems

Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)

Market Direction External Links

Market Direction IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info

Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info

 

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 4 2025 – All About The March Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw stocks collapsing worldwide following higher than expected tariffs from President Trump. At was a brutal day, the worse single day since 2020. The SPX closed down 274 points to 5396 on 7.3 billion shares …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025 review the outlook for stocks after tariffs were announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for today include Chevron Stock (CVX), Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM), VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 3 2025 – Bearish Following Higher Than Expected Tariffs

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wed Apr 2 2025, investors rallied stocks for a third day on hope that the tariffs being introduced would be lower than many expected. As we found out after the market closed, the tariffs were …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025 review the second higher day on Tuesday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF, RH Stock (RH) and more. The morning Investing Strategy …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 2 2025 – Tariffs Day – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Apr 1 2025 stocks sold lower before finding some buyers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were back positive. The SPX closed up 21 points to 5633 on 4.5 billion shares traded. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025 review the afternoon rally from Monday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 1 2025 – Nice Bounce But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Mon Mar 31 2025 stocks seemed headed for another low until buyers finally returned. The index bounced and the SPX closed up 31 points to 5612. Volume was good at 5.3 billion shares and by …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025 review the continuation of the sell-off. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 31 2025 – Bounce Attempt Likely But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Fri Mar 28 2025 stocks plunged lower without any large rally attempt. This lead to more selling which saw the index close near the day’s low. The SPX lost 112 points and ended the week …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025 review the state of the market. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 28 2025 – Weakness Into The Weekend

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks had big swings with the SPX falling as deep as 5670 and rallying to 5732 before closing at 5693 for a small loss of 19 points. The SPX is still up 25 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025 review the outlook for the rally as well as comments on the impact of the 25% auto tariffs announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 – Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors reacted to news of tariffs on automobiles entering the USA. There was also some profit-taking after 3 days of rallying. The S&P closed down 64 points to 5712 but on declining volume of …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025 review the outlook following a choppy day of trading on Tuesday, during which volumes to the downside were dominant. Stocks discussed for Wednesday include VIX ETF, Apple …

Subscribe For The Latest News