FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Outlook For Mar 11 2013 – Neutral To Up

Mar 10, 2013 | Stock Market Outlook

Market Direction on Friday got a boost from the excellent employment numbers.The S&P 500 closed up half a percent and is within 1 percent of a new record high. Meanwhile the Dow market direction also pushed up half a percent and brought that index to another fourth record high. The tech heavy NASDAQ index closed up but not as high as the other two main indexes. This latest push in market direction has been led by the Dow index which appears to have taken the lead from the NASDAQ.

Market Direction and Jobs

The boost of 236,000 jobs in February, almost double the previous month dropped the unemployment rate to 7.7 percent. Gold moved up $1.80 to $1,576.90 and oil continued to recover moving up another 39 cents to $91.95 a barrel. The unemployment news presents a two-edged view. The numbers show that the US economy may be performing better than anticipated and indeed Bill Gross of Pimco updated his outlook for economic growth to 3 percent rather than the original estimate of 1.75 percent. At the same time this brings about the question of whether the Fed will reduce bond purchases as the economy continues to mend. This reduction in liquidity could have far-reaching effects on stock valuations.

Market Direction Action For Today

Two charts worth looking at are the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones for March 8, intraday set for 5 minute time frames.

Market Direction and the S&P 500

Below is the S&P 500. The opening saw an enthusiastic response from investors who pushed the market direction up to 1551.65 (Point A). Then as investors starting to question how long before the Fed pulls the liquidity train away the S&P sold off pushing to the low of the day at 1542.94 (Point B). This pushed the S&P 500 into the red as it fell below Thursday’s close of 1544.36.

From there the S&P 500 staged a slow grinding recovery which eventually saw it close at 1551.18 (Point C) just slightly below the morning high.

Market Direction S&P 500 March 8 2013

Market Direction S&P 500 March 8 2013

Market Direction and the Dow Jones Index

The Dow index saw almost an identical chart on Friday. The unemployment news pushed the Dow to a new record high at 14413.20 (Point A) and then the selling pushed the Dow market direction down to 14334.60 (Point B) which unlike the S&P 500 was still above the morning open, a bullish sign.

The market direction on the Dow was another slow grind higher until the market closed at Point C 14397.10 which was still below the opening morning high.

market direction and the row jones March 8 2013

Market Direction and the Dow Jones Index March 8 2013

While both managed respectable closings all the action was within the first 5 or 10 minutes and the rest of the day was spent recovering from the early morning sell-off. While nonetheless bullish, this is not the type of action that breeds investor confidence. Indeed if anything, this type of action tells me that there is a good chance we are going to retest the support levels within both indexes before moving significantly higher.

Market Direction Closings

The S&P 500 closed at 1551.18, up 6.92 points and the Dow closed at 14,397.07, up 67.58 points. The NASDAQ closed at 3244.37 up 12.18.

Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of Mar 8 2013

Let’s take a moment now and review the market direction technical indicators at Friday’s close on the S&P 500 and view the next trading day’s outlook.

Overall there are a few significant changes.

Market Direction Technical Analysis March 8 2013

For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is still positive but it is levelling off suggesting that not too many investors are interested in owning more stock at this level in the market.

For MACD Histogram I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) is positive and the buy signal remains active. The MACD readings are continuing to climb supporting the outlook for higher prices.

The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and overbought. Eventually some selling will have to enter the market direction to reduce the overbought pressure, otherwise any move higher from here will be suspect.

Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. Rate Of Change is still positive and it is trying to climb higher. This is bullish for market direction continuing higher.

For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is overbought to the extreme and while it is signaling that the market direction is still higher, the K and D percentages readings are so close as to suggest a market direction sideways is more likely than a lot higher..

For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is also extremely overbought and again while not quite as neutral as the slow stochastic it is indicating that the market direction push higher may be difficult to sustain for much longer without a rest.

Market Direction Outlook And Strategy for Mar 11 2013

The market direction outlook for Monday is for the market direction to try to continue to push higher, but the pressure to move sideways is once more building. Overall the markets still need a rest to have strength for a sustained rally higher. If the market direction does not rest over the next couple of days, any move higher should be viewed with suspicion until the market direction shows it can hold support at present levels.

The market direction pull back which started Feb 20 and lasted only until Feb 25 was not enough to build strong support. As well the S&P 500 has had 6 up days in a row which, while not rare, is uncommon to repeat beyond 7 days. Therefore I will not be surprised to see the market direction either squeak out a small gain on Monday or pull back.

The Market Direction Technical Analysis Indicators are mixed once more. 3 of them are neutral with a slight bias to up and 3 are indicating that the market still has room to push higher. Because of this the stance has to remain on the bullish side but my strategy of staying cautious still is warranted in my opinion.

Internal Market Direction Links

Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)

Market Timing Articles Index

How I Use Market Timing

Understanding Short-Term Signals

Various Market Timing Systems

Market Direction Candlestick Daily View (Members only)

Market Direction Portfolio Ongoing Trades (Members only)

Market Direction External Links

Market Direction IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info

Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 4 2025 – All About The March Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw stocks collapsing worldwide following higher than expected tariffs from President Trump. At was a brutal day, the worse single day since 2020. The SPX closed down 274 points to 5396 on 7.3 billion shares …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025 review the outlook for stocks after tariffs were announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for today include Chevron Stock (CVX), Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM), VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 3 2025 – Bearish Following Higher Than Expected Tariffs

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wed Apr 2 2025, investors rallied stocks for a third day on hope that the tariffs being introduced would be lower than many expected. As we found out after the market closed, the tariffs were …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025 review the second higher day on Tuesday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF, RH Stock (RH) and more. The morning Investing Strategy …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 2 2025 – Tariffs Day – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Apr 1 2025 stocks sold lower before finding some buyers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were back positive. The SPX closed up 21 points to 5633 on 4.5 billion shares traded. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025 review the afternoon rally from Monday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 1 2025 – Nice Bounce But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Mon Mar 31 2025 stocks seemed headed for another low until buyers finally returned. The index bounced and the SPX closed up 31 points to 5612. Volume was good at 5.3 billion shares and by …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025 review the continuation of the sell-off. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 31 2025 – Bounce Attempt Likely But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Fri Mar 28 2025 stocks plunged lower without any large rally attempt. This lead to more selling which saw the index close near the day’s low. The SPX lost 112 points and ended the week …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025 review the state of the market. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 28 2025 – Weakness Into The Weekend

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks had big swings with the SPX falling as deep as 5670 and rallying to 5732 before closing at 5693 for a small loss of 19 points. The SPX is still up 25 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025 review the outlook for the rally as well as comments on the impact of the 25% auto tariffs announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 – Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors reacted to news of tariffs on automobiles entering the USA. There was also some profit-taking after 3 days of rallying. The S&P closed down 64 points to 5712 but on declining volume of …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025 review the outlook following a choppy day of trading on Tuesday, during which volumes to the downside were dominant. Stocks discussed for Wednesday include VIX ETF, Apple …

Subscribe For The Latest News